IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v331y2016icp86-99.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A physically coupled end-to-end model platform for coastal ecosystems: Simulating the effects of climate change and changing upwelling characteristics on the Northern California Current ecosystem

Author

Listed:
  • Ruzicka, James J.
  • Brink, Kenneth H.
  • Gifford, Dian J.
  • Bahr, Frank

Abstract

We describe a spatially explicit, intermediate complexity end-to-end model platform that integrates physical, trophic, and nutrient cycling processes. A two-dimensional advection and mixing model drives nitrate input into the model continental shelf domain, the transport of nutrients and plankton between sub-regions, and the export of nutrients and plankton from the model domain. Trophic relationships are defined by classical mass-balanced food web model techniques (e.g., ECOPATH). Inclusion of nitrate and ammonium nutrient pools and bacterial recycling of detritus allows consideration of alternate “new” vs. “recycled” production regimes. The model platform was applied to the Northern California Current (NCC) shelf ecosystem. Seasonal upwelling of nutrients along the coast is the primary driver of NCC productivity, however the characteristics of upwelling vary considerably between years and are expected to change into the future as a result of global climate change. The model was run under alternate physical driver scenarios to examine the effects of changing upwelling characteristics on the production and spatial distribution of functional groups across all trophic levels. Productivity on the shelf had a dome-shaped relationship with upwelling strength. As the intensity of individual upwelling events increased, productivity increased throughout the food web. However, strong upwelling had a detrimental effect when the physical export of plankton exceeded the capacity of phytoplankton to exploit higher nutrient supply rates and the capacity of zooplankton to exploit higher phytoplankton production. As the duration of individual upwelling events increased (an implication of some climate change scenarios) model simulations predicted an overall reduction of productivity at all trophic levels and a shift in the size composition of the phytoplankton community, especially within the nearshore region.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruzicka, James J. & Brink, Kenneth H. & Gifford, Dian J. & Bahr, Frank, 2016. "A physically coupled end-to-end model platform for coastal ecosystems: Simulating the effects of climate change and changing upwelling characteristics on the Northern California Current ecosystem," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 331(C), pages 86-99.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:331:y:2016:i:c:p:86-99
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.01.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380016300060
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.01.018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ruzicka, James J. & Wainwright, Thomas C. & Peterson, William T., 2011. "A simple plankton model for the Oregon upwelling ecosystem: Sensitivity and validation against time-series ocean data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(6), pages 1222-1235.
    2. Daiwei Wang & Tarik C. Gouhier & Bruce A. Menge & Auroop R. Ganguly, 2015. "Intensification and spatial homogenization of coastal upwelling under climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 518(7539), pages 390-394, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haiming Li & Nathaniel James & Junwei Chen & Shanjia Zhang & Linyao Du & Yishi Yang & Guoke Chen & Minmin Ma & Xin Jia, 2023. "Agricultural Economic Transformations and Their Impacting Factors around 4000 BP in the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-11, February.
    2. Patricio Winckler Grez & Catalina Aguirre & Laura Farías & Manuel Contreras-López & Ítalo Masotti, 2020. "Evidence of climate-driven changes on atmospheric, hydrological, and oceanographic variables along the Chilean coastal zone," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 633-652, November.
    3. Claudia Patricia Maldonado-Erazo & José Álvarez-García & María de la Cruz del Río-Rama & Amador Durán-Sánchez, 2021. "Scientific Mapping on the Impact of Climate Change on Cultural and Natural Heritage: A Systematic Scientometric Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Liu, Zhi-bin & Liu, Shu-tang & Tian, Da-dong & Wang, Da, 2021. "Stability analysis of the plankton community with advection," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Shengpeng Wang & Zhao Jing & Lixin Wu & Shantong Sun & Qihua Peng & Hong Wang & Yu Zhang & Jian Shi, 2023. "Southern hemisphere eastern boundary upwelling systems emerging as future marine heatwave hotspots under greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    6. Tianshi Du & Shengpeng Wang & Zhao Jing & Lixin Wu & Chao Zhang & Bihan Zhang, 2024. "Future changes in coastal upwelling and biological production in eastern boundary upwelling systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Ertürk, Ali & Sakurova, Ilona & Zilius, Mindaugas & Zemlys, Petras & Umgiesser, Georg & Kaynaroglu, Burak & Pilkaitytė, Renata & Razinkovas-Baziukas, Artūras, 2023. "Development of a pelagic biogeochemical model with enhanced computational performance by optimizing ecological complexity and spatial resolution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:331:y:2016:i:c:p:86-99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.