IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v288y2014icp55-61.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Butterfly catastrophe model for wheat aphid population dynamics: Construction, analysis and application

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Wenqi
  • Piyaratne, M.K.D.K.
  • Zhao, Huiyan
  • Li, Chunlong
  • Hu, Zuqing
  • Hu, Xiangshun

Abstract

In agriculture, a population catastrophic phenomenon exists in many species of insects such as wheat aphids. Numerous previous attempts have been made to describe this dynamic behavior of insect populations using mathematical models in order to develop efficient biological control measures. However, most of the models are limited to no more than three controlling variables and restricted in theoretical analysis, thus, are not enough to cope with complicated ecological systems. Catastrophe theory, one of the earliest dynamic theories, can be used to address this problem more comprehensively. In this study, we propose using butterfly catastrophe theory to build a wheat aphid population dynamics model as a function of four controlling factors (natural enemy, weather factor, pesticide effect and carrying capacity). We used data collected by Ecology and Integrated Pest Management Laboratory in Northwest A & F University to verify the model. Model development, parameter estimation and verification results are presented. The results indicate that the butterfly catastrophe model can be applied to analyze aphid population dynamics considering four controlling variables. Effective management strategies for preventing catastrophic increase of wheat aphids can be carried out by changing the four controlling variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Wenqi & Piyaratne, M.K.D.K. & Zhao, Huiyan & Li, Chunlong & Hu, Zuqing & Hu, Xiangshun, 2014. "Butterfly catastrophe model for wheat aphid population dynamics: Construction, analysis and application," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 288(C), pages 55-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:288:y:2014:i:c:p:55-61
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.05.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438001400266X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.05.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rosser Jr., J. Barkley, 2007. "The rise and fall of catastrophe theory applications in economics: Was the baby thrown out with the bathwater?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3255-3280, October.
    2. Piyaratne, M.K.D.K. & Zhao, Huiyan & Meng, Qingxiang, 2013. "APHIDSim: A population dynamics model for wheat aphids based on swallowtail catastrophe theory," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 9-16.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Lili & Song, Ge & Meadows, Michael E. & Zou, Chaohui, 2018. "Spatio-temporal evolution of the early-warning status of cultivated land and its driving factors: A case study of Heilongjiang Province, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 280-292.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wagener, F.O.O., 2005. "Structural analysis of optimal investment for firms with non-concave revenue," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 474-489, August.
    2. Xiao-jun Wang & Jian-yun Zhang & Xue-wei Tong & Shahid Shamsuddin & Rui-min He & Xing-hui Xia, 2014. "Mechanism and comprehensive countermeasure for drought management from the view of catastrophe theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 823-835, March.
    3. Vasilis Angelis & Katerina Dimaki, 2011. "A Region's Basic Image as a Measure of its Attractiveness," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 4(2), pages 7-33, August.
    4. repec:jss:jstsof:32:i08 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Devine, James G., 2011. "The great moderation and "falling off a cliff": Neo-Kaldorian dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 366-373, May.
    6. Vasilis Angelis & Athanasios Angelis-Dimakis & Katerina Dimaki, 2016. "Identifying Clusters of Regions in the European South, based on their Economic, Social and Environmental Characteristics," REGION, European Regional Science Association, vol. 3, pages 71-102.
    7. Miloslav Vošvrda & Jozef Baruník, 2008. "Modelování krachů na kapitálových trzích: aplikace teorie stochastických katastrof [Stock market crashes modeling: stochastic cusp catastrophe application]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(6), pages 759-771.
    8. Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan & Grant, William E. & Koralewski, Tomasz E. & Brewer, Michael J. & Elliott, Norman C., 2021. "Simulating migration of wind-borne pests: “Deconstructing” representation of the emigration process," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 460(C).
    9. Jozef Barunik & Jiri Kukacka, 2015. "Realizing stock market crashes: stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under time-varying volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 959-973, June.
    10. Mohamed M. Mostafa, 2020. "Catastrophe Theory Predicts International Concern for Global Warming," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 709-731, September.
    11. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2017. "On the bimodality of the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion: Empirical evidence and theoretical explanations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 34-53.
    12. Rosser Jr., J. Barkley, 2010. "Is a transdisciplinary perspective on economic complexity possible?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 3-11, July.
    13. Xu, Yan & Hu, Bin & Wu, Jiang & Zhang, Jianhua, 2014. "Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 400(C), pages 100-108.
    14. J. Barkley Rosser, Jr, 2011. "Post Keynesian Perspectives And Complex Ecologic–Economic Dynamics," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 96-121, February.
    15. Michael S. Harr'e & Adam Harris & Scott McCallum, 2019. "Singularities and Catastrophes in Economics: Historical Perspectives and Future Directions," Papers 1907.05582, arXiv.org.
    16. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    17. Barunik, J. & Vosvrda, M., 2009. "Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1824-1836, October.
    18. Mostafa, Mohamed M., 2022. "Five decades of catastrophe theory research: Geographical atlas, knowledge structure and historical roots," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    19. Jiri Kukacka & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2023. "Fundamental and speculative components of the cryptocurrency pricing dynamics," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, December.
    20. VASILIS ANGELIS & Athanasios Angelis-Dimakis & Katerina Dimaki, 2012. "The Role Of Environment In A Region’S Sustainable Development As Described By A Butterfly Catastrophe," ERSA conference papers ersa12p1157, European Regional Science Association.
    21. Vassilis Angelis & Ioanna Tsoka & Katerina Dimaki, 2011. "Tourism as a means of developing isolated regions: Defining the Image of a tourism destination from the demand and supply side," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1895, European Regional Science Association.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:288:y:2014:i:c:p:55-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.