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Multisite-multivariable sensitivity analysis of distributed watershed models: Enhancing the perceptions from computationally frugal methods

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  • Ahmadi, Mehdi
  • Ascough, James C.
  • DeJonge, Kendall C.
  • Arabi, Mazdak

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of different likelihood functions in identifying sensitive parameters of the highly parameterized, spatially distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model for multiple variables at multiple sites. The global one-factor-at-a-time (OAT) method of Morris was used for sensitivity analysis of streamflow, combined nitrate (NO3) and nitrite (NO2) fluxes, and total phosphorous (TP) at five gage stations in a primarily agricultural watershed in the Midwestern United States. The Morris method was analyzed for 36 combinations of informal likelihood functions, gage stations, and SWAT model output responses, including relative error mass balance (BIAS), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient, and root mean square error (RMSE) for peak and low fluxes, and one formal likelihood function that aggregates information content from multiple sites and multiple variables using 65 SWAT parameters. The correlation between sensitivity measures from different likelihood functions was also assessed using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. Sensitivity of parameters using different likelihood functions was highly variable, although sensitivity of streamflow and TP showed a high correlation. A stronger correlation between sensitivity of nutrient fluxes at the upstream stations as well as the stations closer to the watershed outlets was evident. Comparison of the combined rank of parameters from informal likelihood functions and the ranks obtained from the formal likelihood function confirmed formal likelihood function ability to effectively identify both sensitive and insensitive parameters with less computational and analysis burden. Uncertainty analysis of the Morris results using bootstrap replications showed that both formal and informal likelihood functions identified sensitive parameters with high confidence.

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  • Ahmadi, Mehdi & Ascough, James C. & DeJonge, Kendall C. & Arabi, Mazdak, 2014. "Multisite-multivariable sensitivity analysis of distributed watershed models: Enhancing the perceptions from computationally frugal methods," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 279(C), pages 54-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:279:y:2014:i:c:p:54-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.02.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. He, Jianqiang & Jones, James W. & Graham, Wendy D. & Dukes, Michael D., 2010. "Influence of likelihood function choice for estimating crop model parameters using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(5), pages 256-264, June.
    2. Saltelli, Andrea & Ratto, Marco & Tarantola, Stefano & Campolongo, Francesca, 2006. "Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1109-1125.
    3. Ciric, C. & Ciffroy, P. & Charles, S., 2012. "Use of sensitivity analysis to identify influential and non-influential parameters within an aquatic ecosystem model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 246(C), pages 119-130.
    4. DeJonge, Kendall C. & Ascough, James C. & Ahmadi, Mehdi & Andales, Allan A. & Arabi, Mazdak, 2012. "Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a dynamic agroecosystem model under different irrigation treatments," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 113-125.
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    1. Yi, Xuan & Zou, Rui & Guo, Huaicheng, 2016. "Global sensitivity analysis of a three-dimensional nutrients-algae dynamic model for a large shallow lake," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 327(C), pages 74-84.
    2. Jin, Xin & Jin, Yanxiang & Yuan, Donghai & Mao, Xufeng, 2019. "Effects of land-use data resolution on hydrologic modelling, a case study in the upper reach of the Heihe River, Northwest China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 404(C), pages 61-68.

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