Modelling pheromone anemotaxis for biosecurity surveillance: Moth movement patterns reveal a downwind component of anemotaxis

Insect pheromone traps are becoming an increasingly important tool in biosecurity and pest surveillance, alerting managers to the presence of unwanted organisms. To expand the role of these traps beyond their present sentinel role, it is necessary to develop reliable operational models of local insect dispersal. Following the detection of an insect incursion using a pheromone trap, such models could simulate the dispersal of the insect from its emergence site to the point of detection, enabling biosecurity managers to estimate the most likely proximal source of the incursion. An individual-based moth movement model was developed to simulate observed patterns of moth movement in response to the presence or absence of a pheromone. Using parameters derived from a genetic algorithm, it was possible to fit a model based on the three behavioural components (upwind, upwind with zigzags and casting) described in insect anemotaxis theory to a subset of observed movement patterns (0–135° to the wind), but not to the whole spectrum of movement patterns. It appears that current insect anemotaxis theory is missing a downwind flight component. Whilst the frequency of downwind movements is small; their ground speed could lead to significant downwind displacement, having a disproportionately strong influence on a moth movement model, and hence projections of the likely source or target locations.