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A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management

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  • Keane, Robert E.
  • Drury, Stacy A.
  • Karau, Eva C.
  • Hessburg, Paul F.
  • Reynolds, Keith M.

Abstract

This paper presents modeling methods for mapping fire hazard and fire risk using a research model called FIREHARM (FIRE Hazard and Risk Model) that computes common measures of fire behavior, fire danger, and fire effects to spatially portray fire hazard over space. FIREHARM can compute a measure of risk associated with the distribution of these measures over time using 18 years of gridded DAYMET daily weather data used to simulate fuel moistures to compute fire variables. We detail the background, structure, and application of FIREHARM and then present validation results of six of the FIREHARM output variables that revealed accuracy rates ranging from 20 to 80% correct depending on the quality of input data and the behavior of the fire behavior simulation framework. Overall accuracies appeared acceptable for prioritization analysis and large scale assessments because precision was high. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of the fire hazard and risk approaches and a possible agenda for future development of comprehensive fire hazard and risk mapping is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Keane, Robert E. & Drury, Stacy A. & Karau, Eva C. & Hessburg, Paul F. & Reynolds, Keith M., 2010. "A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 2-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:1:p:2-18
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.10.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Keane, Robert E. & Rollins, Matthew & Zhu, Zhi-Liang, 2007. "Using simulated historical time series to prioritize fuel treatments on landscapes across the United States: The LANDFIRE prototype project," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 204(3), pages 485-502.
    2. Liedloff, Adam C. & Cook, Garry D., 2007. "Modelling the effects of rainfall variability and fire on tree populations in an Australian tropical savanna with the Flames simulation model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 269-282.
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    Cited by:

    1. Seidl, Rupert & Fernandes, Paulo M. & Fonseca, Teresa F. & Gillet, François & Jönsson, Anna Maria & Merganičová, Katarína & Netherer, Sigrid & Arpaci, Alexander & Bontemps, Jean-Daniel & Bugmann, Hara, 2011. "Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(4), pages 903-924.
    2. Ghafar Salavati & Ebrahim Saniei & Ebrahim Ghaderpour & Quazi K. Hassan, 2022. "Wildfire Risk Forecasting Using Weights of Evidence and Statistical Index Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Keane, Robert E. & Karau, Eva, 2010. "Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(8), pages 1162-1172.
    4. Horia-Nicolai L. Teodorescu, 2015. "Defining resilience using probabilistic event trees," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 279-290, June.
    5. Naderpour, Mohsen & Rizeei, Hossein Mojaddadi & Khakzad, Nima & Pradhan, Biswajeet, 2019. "Forest fire induced Natech risk assessment: A survey of geospatial technologies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    6. Alan A. Ager & Michelle Buonopane & Allison Reger & Mark A. Finney, 2013. "Wildfire Exposure Analysis on the National Forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 1000-1020, June.
    7. Sarkawt G. Salar & Arsalan Ahmed Othman & Sabri Rasooli & Salahalddin S. Ali & Zaid T. Al-Attar & Veraldo Liesenberg, 2022. "GIS-Based Modeling for Vegetated Land Fire Prediction in Qaradagh Area, Kurdistan Region, Iraq," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-31, May.
    8. Susete Marques & Marco Marto & Vladimir Bushenkov & Marc McDill & JoséG. Borges, 2017. "Addressing Wildfire Risk in Forest Management Planning with Multiple Criteria Decision Making Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-17, February.

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