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The Water Framework Directive: Setting the phosphorus loading target for a deep lake in Denmark using the 1D lake ecosystem model DYRESM–CAEDYM

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  • Trolle, Dennis
  • Skovgaard, Henrik
  • Jeppesen, Erik

Abstract

We used the one-dimensional DYRESM–CAEDYM model to elucidate and quantify the influence of the external phosphorus loading on ecosystem dynamics in moderately deep Lake Ravn, which is situated in an agricultural landscape in Denmark. Model simulations were used to quantify the extent to which the external phosphorus loading must be reduced to meet upcoming lake ecological quality requirements according to the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD). The model generally showed good agreement with observed data for temperature and oxygen from the epilimnion and hypolimnion during the calibration period (7 years) as well as the validation period (5 years); although peaks of oxygen concentrations in epilimnion during late spring often were underestimated. Phosphate and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were generally well reproduced in both the epilimnion and hypolimnion, though hypolimnetic phosphorus was occasionally underestimated in late summer. There was also good agreement between monitored data and modelled biomass of diatoms and dinoflagellates as well as the zooplankton biomass of cladocerans and calanoid copepods, although the timing of biomass peaks occasionally deviated from observations. Root-mean-square-errors (RMSE), used to quantify the model error, were overall similar for the calibration and the validation period. Simulations of scenarios with a reduced external TP loading suggest that a substantial reduction (40–50%) of the TP loading is required if phytoplankton biomass is to drop to a level sufficiently low to meet the proposed WFD requirements (summer average <6.5μg chlorophyll a l−1). The predicted outcomes of considerable loading reductions should, however, be treated with some caution, as the conceptual model in this study could not fully account for the changes in trophic structure occurring at radically reduced TP loading. This particularly applies to changes in the fish stock, which may have extensive cascading effects via increased zooplankton grazing on the phytoplankton when external TP loading is reduced. This would most likely lead to higher transparency than that predicted by the model. To further improve the reliability of the predicted outcomes of various model scenarios, future work should include a series of test simulations also including fish predation. Today, fish predation is available in the DYRESM–CAEDYM model as well as other dynamic lake models; however, only sparse data is available on fish stock dynamics in Lake Ravn (as for most other lakes). An applicable test of the fish algorithms in today’s dynamic models will require reliable estimates of fish stock biomass in the study lakes during both the model calibration and validation period.

Suggested Citation

  • Trolle, Dennis & Skovgaard, Henrik & Jeppesen, Erik, 2008. "The Water Framework Directive: Setting the phosphorus loading target for a deep lake in Denmark using the 1D lake ecosystem model DYRESM–CAEDYM," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 138-152.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:219:y:2008:i:1:p:138-152
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.08.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mieleitner, Johanna & Reichert, Peter, 2008. "Modelling functional groups of phytoplankton in three lakes of different trophic state," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 211(3), pages 279-291.
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    2. Weinberger, Stefan & Vetter, Mark, 2012. "Using the hydrodynamic model DYRESM based on results of a regional climate model to estimate water temperature changes at Lake Ammersee," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 244(C), pages 38-48.
    3. Zhang, Chen & Zhu, Zixuan & Špoljar, Maria & Kuczyńska-Kippen, Natalia & Dražina, Tvrtko & Cvetnić, Matija & Mleczek, Mirosław, 2022. "Ecosystem models indicate zooplankton biomass response to nutrient input and climate warming is related to lake size," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    4. Dash, Siddhant & Borah, Smitom Swapna & Kalamdhad, Ajay S., 2020. "Study of the limnology of wetlands through a one-dimensional model for assessing the eutrophication levels induced by various pollution sources," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 416(C).
    5. Dash, Siddhant & Kalamdhad, Ajay S., 2022. "Systematic bibliographic research on eutrophication-based ecological modelling of aquatic ecosystems through the lens of science mapping," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 472(C).
    6. Snortheim, Craig A. & Hanson, Paul C. & McMahon, Katherine D. & Read, Jordan S. & Carey, Cayelan C. & Dugan, Hilary A., 2017. "Meteorological drivers of hypolimnetic anoxia in a eutrophic, north temperate lake," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 343(C), pages 39-53.
    7. Vassilis Z. Antonopoulos & Soultana K. Gianniou, 2023. "Energy Budget, Water Quality Parameters and Primary Production Modeling in Lake Volvi in Northern Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-22, January.
    8. Nakhaei, Nader & Boegman, Leon & Mehdizadeh, Mahyar & Loewen, Mark, 2021. "Three-dimensional biogeochemical modeling of eutrophication in Edmonton stormwater ponds," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 456(C).
    9. Falu Gong & Liancong Luo & Huiyun Li & Lan Chen & Rufeng Zhang & Guizhu Wu & Jian Zhang & Weiqiang Shi & Fan Zhang & Hao Zhang & Ting Sun, 2023. "Quantitative Assessment of Water Quality Improvement by Reducing External Loadings at Lake Erhai, Southwest China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-13, March.
    10. Qi Wang & Leon Boegman, 2021. "Multi-Year Simulation of Western Lake Erie Hydrodynamics and Biogeochemistry to Evaluate Nutrient Management Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-22, July.
    11. Ertürk, Ali & Sakurova, Ilona & Zilius, Mindaugas & Zemlys, Petras & Umgiesser, Georg & Kaynaroglu, Burak & Pilkaitytė, Renata & Razinkovas-Baziukas, Artūras, 2023. "Development of a pelagic biogeochemical model with enhanced computational performance by optimizing ecological complexity and spatial resolution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    12. Fenocchi, Andrea & Rogora, Michela & Morabito, Giuseppe & Marchetto, Aldo & Sibilla, Stefano & Dresti, Claudia, 2019. "Applicability of a one-dimensional coupled ecological-hydrodynamic numerical model to future projections in a very deep large lake (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 392(C), pages 38-51.

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