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Principle of the worst scenario in the modelling past and future of biosphere dynamics

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  • Bartsev, Sergey I.
  • Degermendzhi, Andrey G.
  • Erokhin, Dmitry V.

Abstract

The “biosphere–climate” system is subjected to different influences (influx of anthropogenic CO2 and pollutants, deforestation, harmful land management, biological species depopulation, etc.). Therefore, the vital question arises: “Can these influences lead to irreversible negative changes in the climate–biosphere system or a global ecological catastrophe?” The possibility of irreversible changes may be not very high, but one cannot ignore it. So the main aim of our investigation is to evaluate possible consequences of human impact on the biosphere focusing on irreversible changes of it.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartsev, Sergey I. & Degermendzhi, Andrey G. & Erokhin, Dmitry V., 2008. "Principle of the worst scenario in the modelling past and future of biosphere dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 160-171.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:216:y:2008:i:2:p:160-171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.03.002
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    1. D. A. Stainforth & T. Aina & C. Christensen & M. Collins & N. Faull & D. J. Frame & J. A. Kettleborough & S. Knight & A. Martin & J. M. Murphy & C. Piani & D. Sexton & L. A. Smith & R. A. Spicer & A. , 2005. "Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases," Nature, Nature, vol. 433(7024), pages 403-406, January.
    2. Collins, Julie, 2007. "Climate Change and Emissions Trading (Power Point)," 2007 Seminar, August 24, 2007, Wellington, New Zealand 97617, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    3. Aumann, Craig A., 2007. "A methodology for developing simulation models of complex systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(3), pages 385-396.
    4. Lawrie, Jock & Hearne, John, 2007. "Reducing model complexity via output sensitivity," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 137-144.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergey Bartsev & Andrey Degermendzhi, 2023. "The Evolutionary Mechanism of Formation of Biosphere Closure," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-22, July.
    2. Arce, G.L.A.F. & Carvalho, J.A. & Nascimento, L.F.C., 2014. "A time series sequestration and storage model of atmospheric carbon dioxide," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 59-67.

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