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Modelling tree mortality by bark beetle infestation in Norway spruce forests

Author

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  • Seidl, Rupert
  • Baier, Peter
  • Rammer, Werner
  • Schopf, Axel
  • Lexer, Manfred J.

Abstract

Disturbances play a major role in forest ecosystems, they are main constituents of forest dynamics and are often a relevant driver in forest management decisions. The European Spruce Bark Beetle (Ips typographus L. Col. Scol.) is one of the major biotic disturbances in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests. In this contribution a sub-model of disturbances by I. typographus was developed and integrated in the existing hybrid forest patch model PICUS v1.4. The new disturbance sub-model builds on a recently developed phenology model for risk assessment of outbreaks of I. typographus (PHENIPS) and elements from an existing predisposition assessment system (PAS). Model parameterisation was based on data from 28 Norway spruce stands in Austria. In a preliminary model evaluation a comprehensive sensitivity analysis at sites along an elevation gradient in the Eastern Alps is presented. Sensitivity over the elevation gradient was found to be highest and strongly non-linear with regard to the thermal environment. Furthermore, in accordance with general expectations and observations simulated damages were high under colline and submontane conditions and strongly decreased over the elevation transect. Based on the results of the simulation experiments it is concluded that the presented model is a promising tool to analyse the dynamic interaction of disturbances by I. typographus, environmental conditions and forest structure as affected by natural forest development and management interventions. Limitations of the model and possible approaches for extensive validation against empirical damage data are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Seidl, Rupert & Baier, Peter & Rammer, Werner & Schopf, Axel & Lexer, Manfred J., 2007. "Modelling tree mortality by bark beetle infestation in Norway spruce forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 206(3), pages 383-399.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:206:y:2007:i:3:p:383-399
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.04.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fan-Rui Meng & Charles Bourque & Steven Oldford & D. Swift & Helen Smith, 2003. "Combining carbon sequestration objectives with timber management planning," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 371-403, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ogris, Nikica & Ferlan, Mitja & Hauptman, Tine & Pavlin, Roman & Kavčič, Andreja & Jurc, Maja & de Groot, Maarten, 2019. "RITY – A phenology model of Ips typographus as a tool for optimization of its monitoring," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 410(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Seidl, Rupert & Fernandes, Paulo M. & Fonseca, Teresa F. & Gillet, François & Jönsson, Anna Maria & Merganičová, Katarína & Netherer, Sigrid & Arpaci, Alexander & Bontemps, Jean-Daniel & Bugmann, Hara, 2011. "Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(4), pages 903-924.
    3. Fahse, Lorenz & Heurich, Marco, 2011. "Simulation and analysis of outbreaks of bark beetle infestations and their management at the stand level," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(11), pages 1833-1846.
    4. Christoph Huber & Maximilian Kastner & Eduard Hochbichler & Karl Stampfer, 2017. "Effect of Topping Trees on Biomass and Nitrogen Removal in the Thinning of Norway Spruce Stands," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-14, October.
    5. Thiele, Jan C. & Nuske, Robert S. & Ahrends, Bernd & Panferov, Oleg & Albert, Matthias & Staupendahl, Kai & Junghans, Udo & Jansen, Martin & Saborowski, Joachim, 2017. "Climate change impact assessment—A simulation experiment with Norway spruce for a forest district in Central Europe," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 346(C), pages 30-47.
    6. Honkaniemi, Juha & Ojansuu, Risto & Kasanen, Risto & Heliövaara, Kari, 2018. "Interaction of disturbance agents on Norway spruce: A mechanistic model of bark beetle dynamics integrated in simulation framework WINDROT," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 388(C), pages 45-60.

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