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Dynamic reserve site selection under contagion risk of deforestation

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  • Sabbadin, Régis
  • Spring, Danny
  • Rabier, Charles-Elie

Abstract

Recently, dynamic reserve site selection models based on stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) have been proposed. The models consider a random development pattern in which the probability that a site will be developed is independent of the development status of other sites. However, development often takes the form of a contagion process in which the sites most likely to be developed are near sites that already have been developed. To consider site selections in such cases, we propose improved algorithms that make use of a graph representation of the sites network. The first formulation is an exact, dynamic programming algorithm, with which theoretical and experimental complexities are evaluated. The exact method can be applied only to small problems (less than 10 sites), but real-world problems may have hundreds or thousands of sites, implying that heuristic selection methods must be used. We provide a general framework for describing such heuristic solution methods, and propose a new heuristic method based on a parameterised reinforcement learning algorithm. The method allows us to compute a heuristic function by performing and exploiting many simulations of the deforestation process. We show that the method can be applied to problems with hundreds of sites, and demonstrate experimentally that it outperforms previously proposed heuristic methods in terms of the average number of species conserved.

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  • Sabbadin, Régis & Spring, Danny & Rabier, Charles-Elie, 2007. "Dynamic reserve site selection under contagion risk of deforestation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 201(1), pages 75-81.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:201:y:2007:i:1:p:75-81
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.07.036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Costello, Christopher & Polasky, Stephen, 2004. "Dynamic reserve site selection," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 157-174, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Billionnet, Alain, 2013. "Mathematical optimization ideas for biodiversity conservation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 231(3), pages 514-534.
    2. Xiao, Hui & Chadès, Iadine & Hill, Narelle & Murray, Nicholas & Fuller, Richard A. & McDonald-Madden, Eve, 2021. "Conserving migratory species while safeguarding ecosystem services," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 442(C).
    3. Couture, Stéphane & Cros, Marie-Josée & Sabbadin, Régis, 2016. "Risk aversion and optimal management of an uneven-aged forest under risk of windthrow: A Markov decision process approach," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 94-114.
    4. Dissanayake, Sahan T.M. & Önal, Hayri, 2011. "Amenity driven price effects and conservation reserve site selection: A dynamic linear integer programming approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2225-2235.
    5. Kallimanis, A.S. & Petanidou, T. & Tzanopoulos, J. & Pantis, J.D. & Sgardelis, S.P., 2009. "Do plant–pollinator interaction networks result from stochastic processes?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(5), pages 684-693.
    6. Sándor F. Tóth & Robert G. Haight & Luke W. Rogers, 2011. "Dynamic Reserve Selection: Optimal Land Retention with Land-Price Feedbacks," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 1059-1078, October.
    7. Harrison, Paul & Spring, Daniel & MacKenzie, Michael & Mac Nally, Ralph, 2008. "Dynamic reserve design with the union-find algorithm," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 215(4), pages 369-376.
    8. Mathieu Bonneau & Régis Sabbadin & Fred A Johnson & Bradley Stith, 2018. "Dynamic minimum set problem for reserve design: Heuristic solutions for large problems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-23, March.
    9. Lennox, Gareth D. & Armsworth, Paul R., 2011. "Suitability of short or long conservation contracts under ecological and socio-economic uncertainty," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(15), pages 2856-2866.
    10. Marielle Brunette, 2011. "Une application du Processus de Décision de Markov au secteur forestier : risque de production, de prix et perte de qualité," Post-Print hal-01000606, HAL.
    11. Arora, Gaurav & Feng, Hongli & Hennessy, David A. & Loesch, Charles R. & Kvas, Susan, 2021. "The impact of production network economies on spatially-contiguous conservation– Theoretical model with evidence from the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

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