IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/intecj/v38y2024i2p345-364.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does ENSO Impact Equity Returns? Evidence via Country and Panel Regression

Author

Listed:
  • William Ginn

Abstract

This study employs a panel local projections (LP) model to analyze the influence of El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN) Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on real equity returns based on twenty economies, collectively accounting for 80.2% of global output. We demonstrate that an ENSO shock has a delayed and oscillatory effect on equity returns, where the most significant impact is positive (negative) during an EN (LN) phase. We further analyze the climate state by each of the twenty economies. The literature shows that the effect of an ENSO shock on economic growth can vary across different economies. A main finding is that we show a near uniform result similar to the panel LP model, which we posit is driven in part by strong interconnections of financial markets on a global scale. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and investors.Highlights We estimate a panel and economy-specific climate ENSO switching via LP model.Twenty economies representing 80.2% of global output are analyzed.ENSO shock has a delayed and oscillatory effect on equity returns.Most significant impact of an ENSO shock on equity returns is positive (negative) during an EN (LN) phase.

Suggested Citation

  • William Ginn, 2024. "Does ENSO Impact Equity Returns? Evidence via Country and Panel Regression," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 345-364, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:38:y:2024:i:2:p:345-364
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2024.2320116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10168737.2024.2320116
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10168737.2024.2320116?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dufrénot, Gilles & Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2024. "Climate pattern effects on global economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Ginn, William, 2024. "Global supply chain disruptions and financial conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    3. repec:hal:journl:hal-04828849 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:38:y:2024:i:2:p:345-364. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RIEJ20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.