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Starting rough, Dynamic persuasion with partial information

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  • Nuta, Shunya

Abstract

This study builds upon a Bayesian persuasion model (Kamenica and Gentzkow, 2011), extending it to two stages where the sender observes signals correlated with the persistent state instead of directly observing it. We demonstrate that the uncertainty about the state yields an optimal persuasion policy involving starting rough: the sender maximizes the second stage’s payoff by forgoing persuasion in the first stage.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuta, Shunya, 2024. "Starting rough, Dynamic persuasion with partial information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:239:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524001952
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111712
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Emeric Henry & Marco Ottaviani, 2019. "Research and the Approval Process: The Organization of Persuasion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(3), pages 911-955, March.
    2. Emir Kamenica & Matthew Gentzkow, 2011. "Bayesian Persuasion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2590-2615, October.
    3. Jacopo Bizzotto & Jesper Rüdiger & Adrien Vigier, 2021. "Dynamic Persuasion with Outside Information," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 179-194, February.
    4. Dmitry Orlov & Andrzej Skrzypacz & Pavel Zryumov, 2020. "Persuading the Principal to Wait," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(7), pages 2542-2578.
    5. Jeffrey C. Ely & Martin Szydlowski, 2020. "Moving the Goalposts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(2), pages 468-506.
    6. Jeffrey Ely & Alexander Frankel & Emir Kamenica, 2015. "Suspense and Surprise," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(1), pages 215-260.
    7. Renault, Jérôme & Solan, Eilon & Vieille, Nicolas, 2017. "Optimal dynamic information provision," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 329-349.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1gr6n3t28b94tafji6op8tlqs1 is not listed on IDEAS
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