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New “News” for the news model of the spot exchange rate

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  • Du, Wenti
  • Pentecost, Eric J.

Abstract

The “News” model of the exchange rate, that received only weak support in the 1980s, is shown to be a verifiable model of the bilateral spot rate once the “news” is appropriately measured. Using market sentiment and policy uncertainty indices derived from big data for Japan, as “news” and survey data of agents’ expectations of the spot rate one month ahead, the “News” model of the exchange rate is shown not to be rejected for the bilateral JPY/USD rate from June 2009 to December 2017.

Suggested Citation

  • Du, Wenti & Pentecost, Eric J., 2021. "New “News” for the news model of the spot exchange rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:200:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521000471
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109770
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-449, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aquilante, Tommaso & Di Pace, Federico & Masolo, Riccardo M., 2022. "Exchange-rate and news: Evidence from the COVID pandemic," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Big data; Market sentiment; Policy uncertainty; The “News” model of the exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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