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Secular stagnation? Is there statistical evidence of an unprecedented, systematic decline in growth?

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  • Fritz, Marlon
  • Gries, Thomas
  • Feng, Yuanhua

Abstract

So far it is difficult to establish firm evidence that the recent decline in growth is indeed systematic, unprecedented, and significant. In order to provide more statistical evidence of a decline in economic growth, we use a data-driven nonparametric estimation approach which improves boundary estimators, using an extended iterative plug-in (IPI) algorithm to determine the bandwidth endogenously. We identify continuously Moving Trends (MT) with a length of 18 years for US GDP. Two introduced tests demonstrate a persistent decline in US trends and growth rates since the dot.com bubble. Hence, the 2008 financial crisis merely revealed that GDP, labor, and multi-factor productivity trends were already stagnating.

Suggested Citation

  • Fritz, Marlon & Gries, Thomas & Feng, Yuanhua, 2019. "Secular stagnation? Is there statistical evidence of an unprecedented, systematic decline in growth?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 47-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:181:y:2019:i:c:p:47-50
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.04.021
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    Cited by:

    1. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Lukas Wiechers, 2024. "An early indicator for anomalous stock market performance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 105-118, January.
    2. Gries, Thomas, 2019. "Income polarization and stagnation in a stochastic model of growth: When the demand side matters," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203576, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Fritz, Marlon, 2019. "Steady state adjusting trends using a data-driven local polynomial regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 312-325.
    4. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2020. "Discussing Secular Stagnation: A case for freeing good ideas from theoretical constraints?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 288-297.
    5. Rojas, Mariano & Méndez, Alfonso & Watkins-Fassler, Karen, 2023. "The hierarchy of needs empirical examination of Maslow’s theory and lessons for development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonparametric methods; Secular stagnation; Empirical growth trends;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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