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Does higher firm profit dispersion reflect greater micro uncertainty?

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  • Kim, Jin Yeub
  • Shim, Myungkyu

Abstract

Countercyclical dispersion of firm outcomes (micro dispersion) is commonly used as a proxy for micro uncertainty. In this paper, we characterize conditions under which micro dispersion and micro uncertainty co-move positively in the context of a large Cournot economy with dispersed information and a financial market that aggregates private information. We also show that the parameter region supporting the positive co-movement shrinks when (1) public signal is endogenous through financial asset prices or (2) strategic substitutability in firms’ output decisions is weak. Our analysis raises a cautionary note on using micro dispersion as a measure of uncertainty shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Jin Yeub & Shim, Myungkyu, 2019. "Does higher firm profit dispersion reflect greater micro uncertainty?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 35-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:176:y:2019:i:c:p:35-38
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.10.027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    3. Kozeniauskas, Nicholas & Orlik, Anna & Veldkamp, Laura, 2018. "What are uncertainty shocks?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 1-15.
    4. Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 20-35.
    5. Rondina, Giacomo & Shim, Myungkyu, 2015. "Financial prices and information acquisition in large Cournot markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 769-786.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Bánociová & Slavomíra Ťahlová, 2020. "Tax Loss Amortization of Companies in Slovakia," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-14, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm profit dispersion; Micro uncertainty; Cournot market; Dispersed information; Endogenous public signal; Strategic substitutability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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