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Shocks to military support and subsequent assassinations in Ancient Rome

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  • Christian, Cornelius
  • Elbourne, Liam

Abstract

A dictator relies on his military’s support; shocks to this support can threaten his rule. Motivated by this, we find that lower rainfall, along the north-eastern Roman Empire, predicts more assassinations of Roman emperors. Our proposed mechanism is as follows: lower precipitation increases the probability that Roman troops, who relied on local food supplies, starve. This pushes soldiers to mutiny, hence weakening the emperor’s support, and increasing the probability he is assassinated.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian, Cornelius & Elbourne, Liam, 2018. "Shocks to military support and subsequent assassinations in Ancient Rome," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 79-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:171:y:2018:i:c:p:79-82
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.06.030
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 55-87, July.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Olivier R de Bandt & Luc Jacolin & Thibault Lemaire, 2021. "Climate Change in Developing Countries: Global Warming Effects, Transmission Channels and Adaptation Policies," Working Papers hal-03948704, HAL.

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