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Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph G. Manning

    (Yale University
    Yale Law School)

  • Francis Ludlow

    (Yale University
    Trinity College)

  • Alexander R. Stine

    (San Francisco State University)

  • William R. Boos

    (University of California
    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Michael Sigl

    (Paul Scherrer Institute
    University of Bern)

  • Jennifer R. Marlon

    (Yale University)

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions provide tests of human and natural system sensitivity to abrupt shocks because their repeated occurrence allows the identification of systematic relationships in the presence of random variability. Here we show a suppression of Nile summer flooding via the radiative and dynamical impacts of explosive volcanism on the African monsoon, using climate model output, ice-core-based volcanic forcing data, Nilometer measurements, and ancient Egyptian writings. We then examine the response of Ptolemaic Egypt (305–30 BCE), one of the best-documented ancient superpowers, to volcanically induced Nile suppression. Eruptions are associated with revolt onset against elite rule, and the cessation of Ptolemaic state warfare with their great rival, the Seleukid Empire. Eruptions are also followed by socioeconomic stress with increased hereditary land sales, and the issuance of priestly decrees to reinforce elite authority. Ptolemaic vulnerability to volcanic eruptions offers a caution for all monsoon-dependent agricultural regions, presently including 70% of world population.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph G. Manning & Francis Ludlow & Alexander R. Stine & William R. Boos & Michael Sigl & Jennifer R. Marlon, 2017. "Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-00957-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-00957-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Giacomo Benati & Joerg Baten & Arkadiusz Soltysiak, 2022. "Understanding the decline of interpersonal violence in the ancient middle east Abstract: How did human societies succeed in reducing interpersonal violence, a precondition to achieve security and pros," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2022/424, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Abdelkader T. Ahmed & Fatma El Gohary & Vasileios A. Tzanakakis & Andreas N. Angelakis, 2020. "Egyptian and Greek Water Cultures and Hydro-Technologies in Ancient Times," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-26, November.
    3. Cédric Chambru, 2019. "Do the Right Thing! Leaders, Weather Shocks and Social Conflicts in Pre-Industrial France," Working Papers 0161, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    4. Jedwab, Remi & Johnson, Noel D. & Koyama, Mark, 2022. "Medieval cities through the lens of urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2020. "Medieval Cities Through the Lens of Urban Economic Theories," Working Papers 2020-9, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    6. Zhixin Hao & Danyang Xiong & Jingyun Zheng, 2021. "How ancient China dealt with summer droughts—a case study of the whole process of the 1751 drought in the Qing dynasty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-22, March.
    7. Clive Oppenheimer & Andy Orchard & Markus Stoffel & Timothy P. Newfield & Sébastien Guillet & Christophe Corona & Michael Sigl & Nicola Cosmo & Ulf Büntgen, 2018. "The Eldgjá eruption: timing, long-range impacts and influence on the Christianisation of Iceland," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 369-381, April.
    8. Christian, Cornelius & Elbourne, Liam, 2018. "Shocks to military support and subsequent assassinations in Ancient Rome," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 79-82.

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