IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v162y2018icp131-134.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do 18th century ‘bubbles’ survive the scrutiny of 21st century time series econometrics?

Author

Listed:
  • Hu, Yang
  • Oxley, Les

Abstract

Applying the methods of Phillips et al. (2015, PSY), while considering the possibility of non-stationary volatility (Harvey et al., 2016), evidence of exuberance in share prices is confirmed for the South Sea Company, and established for a number of other 18th century financial organisations, for the first time. The timings of these bubble episodes show signs of possible contagion.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2018. "Do 18th century ‘bubbles’ survive the scrutiny of 21st century time series econometrics?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 131-134.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:162:y:2018:i:c:p:131-134
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2017.09.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176517303713
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.09.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Temin & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2004. "Riding the South Sea Bubble," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1654-1668, December.
    2. Frehen, Rik G.P. & Goetzmann, William N. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 2013. "New evidence on the first financial bubble," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 585-607.
    3. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Sollis, Robert & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2016. "Tests for explosive financial bubbles in the presence of non-stationary volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 548-574.
    4. Ann Carlos & Karen Maguire & Larry Neal, 2006. "Financial acumen, women speculators, and the Royal African company during the South Sea bubble," Accounting History Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 219-243.
    5. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2016. "Exuberance, Bubbles or Froth? Some Historical Results using Long Run House Price Data for Amsterdam, Norway and Paris," Working Papers in Economics 16/08, University of Waikato.
    6. Ann M. Carlos & Larry Neal, 2006. "The micro‐foundations of the early London capital market: Bank of England shareholders during and after the South Sea Bubble, 1720–251," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 59(3), pages 498-538, August.
    7. Caspi, Itamar, 2013. "Rtadf: Testing for Bubbles with EViews," MPRA Paper 58791, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Sep 2014.
    8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    9. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2017. "Exuberance in Historical Stock Prices during the Mississippi and South Seas Bubble Episodes," Working Papers in Economics 17/08, University of Waikato.
    10. Carlos, Ann M. & Moyen, Nathalie & Hill, Jonathan, 2002. "Royal African Company Share Prices during the South Sea Bubble," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 61-87, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang Hu, 2023. "A review of Phillips‐type right‐tailed unit root bubble detection tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 141-158, February.
    2. Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Shi, Shuping & Tan, David, 2022. "Gold as a financial instrument," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    3. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2019. "Property heterogeneity and convergence club formation among local house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.
    4. Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2018. "Bubble contagion: Evidence from Japan’s asset price bubble of the 1980-90s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 89-95.
    5. Zheng Zheng Li & Yidong Xiao & Chi-Wei Su, 2021. "Does COVID-19 Drive Stock Price Bubbles in Medical Mask?," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-6.
    6. Emily J. Whitehouse & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2023. "Real‐Time Monitoring of Bubbles and Crashes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 482-513, June.
    7. Ma, Richie Ruchuan & Xiong, Tao, 2021. "Price explosiveness in nonferrous metal futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 75-90.
    8. Zeren Feyyaz & Yilanci Veli, 2019. "Are there Multiple Bubbles in the Stock Markets? Further Evidence from Selected Countries," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 98(1), pages 81-95, June.
    9. Huerta-Sanchez, Daniel & Jafarinejad, Mohammad & Kim, Dongshin & Soyeh, Kenneth W., 2020. "Disentangling bubbles in equity REITs," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 357-367.
    10. Zhang, Xiaoming & Wei, Chunyan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Tian, Yiming, 2023. "Systemic risk of Chinese financial institutions and asset price bubbles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis & Georgios Papapanagiotou, 2021. "Testing for exuberance in house prices using data sampled at different frequencies," Working Paper series 21-13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2017. "Exuberance in Historical Stock Prices during the Mississippi and South Seas Bubble Episodes," Working Papers in Economics 17/08, University of Waikato.
    2. Frehen, Rik G.P. & Goetzmann, William N. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 2013. "New evidence on the first financial bubble," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 585-607.
    3. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2017. "Exuberance in British Share Prices during the Railway Mania of the 1840s: Evidence from the Phillips, Shi and Yu Test," Working Papers in Economics 17/09, University of Waikato.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2019. "Detecting Financial Collapse and Ballooning Sovereign Risk," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(6), pages 1336-1361, December.
    5. Ann M. Carlos & Erin Fletcher & Larry Neal, 2015. "Share portfolios in the early years of financial capitalism: London, 1690–1730," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 68(2), pages 574-599, May.
    6. Jean-Louis Bago & Koffi Akakpo & Imad Rherrad & Ernest Ouédraogo, 2021. "Volatility Spillover and International Contagion of Housing Bubbles," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, June.
    7. Graeme Acheson & Michael Aldous & William Quinn, 2024. "The anatomy of a bubble company: The London Assurance in 1720," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(1), pages 160-184, February.
    8. Calomiris, Charles W. & Jaremski, Matthew, 2024. "The puzzling persistence of financial crises: A selective review of 2000 years of evidence," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    9. Quinn, William & Turner, John D., 2021. "Riding the bubble or taken for a ride? Investors in the British bicycle mania," QUCEH Working Paper Series 21-07, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    10. Steenkamp, Daan, 2018. "Explosiveness in G11 currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 388-408.
    11. Gary S. Shea, 2011. "(Re)financing the Slave Trade with the Royal African Company in the Boom Markets of 1720," CDMA Working Paper Series 201114, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    12. Caspi, Itamar & Graham, Meital, 2018. "Testing for bubbles in stock markets with irregular dividend distribution," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 89-94.
    13. Escobari, Diego & Garcia, Sergio & Mellado, Cristhian, 2017. "Identifying bubbles in Latin American equity markets: Phillips-Perron-based tests and linkages," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 90-101.
    14. Horváth, Lajos & Li, Hemei & Liu, Zhenya, 2022. "How to identify the different phases of stock market bubbles statistically?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    15. Wang, Xichen & Yan, Ji (Karena) & Yan, Cheng & Gozgor, Giray, 2021. "Emerging stock market exuberance and international short-term flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Condorelli, Stefano, 2014. "The 1719-20 stock euphoria: a pan-European perspective," MPRA Paper 68652, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2015.
    17. Assaf, Ata & Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2024. "Detecting and date-stamping bubbles in fan tokens," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 98-113.
    18. Lui, Yiu Lim & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Yu, Jun, 2024. "Robust testing for explosive behavior with strongly dependent errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    19. Verena Monschang & Bernd Wilfling, 2021. "Sup-ADF-style bubble-detection methods under test," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 145-172, July.
    20. Caravello, Tomas E. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2023. "Rational bubbles: Too many to be true?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exuberance; Bubble; GSADF test; South Sea; Mississippi;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:162:y:2018:i:c:p:131-134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.