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A nonparametric approach to test for predictability

Author

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  • Pan, Zhiyuan
  • Wang, Yudong
  • Wu, Chongfeng

Abstract

Predictability of macroeconomic and financial variables is an important issue in economics. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric test for the predictability of the direction of price changes. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that our method displays better finite-sample property than the traditional parametric Granger causality test~(Granger, 1969) and two nonparametric causality tests of~Hiemstra and Jones (1994) and Diks and Panchenko (2006).

Suggested Citation

  • Pan, Zhiyuan & Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2016. "A nonparametric approach to test for predictability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 10-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:148:y:2016:i:c:p:10-16
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.09.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    2. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    3. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    4. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
    5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    6. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. "Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-1664, December.
    7. Fuchun Li, 2014. "Identifying Asymmetric Comovements of International Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 507-543.
    8. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yan & Liu, Yakun & Zhang, Feipeng, 2024. "Coskewness and the short-term predictability for Bitcoin return," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonparametric test; Predictability; Size; Power;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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