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Do foreign exchange forecasters believe in Uncovered Interest Parity?

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  • Cuestas, Juan Carlos
  • Filipozzi, Fabio
  • Staehr, Karsten

Abstract

Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) is typically rejected in empirical studies, but this letter finds nevertheless that Consensus Forecasts of the exchange rate for Central and Eastern European countries are based on UIP. When structural breaks are included, the forecasts are found to deviate from UIP in 2008–09 when financial markets were under severe stress.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Filipozzi, Fabio & Staehr, Karsten, 2015. "Do foreign exchange forecasters believe in Uncovered Interest Parity?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 92-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:133:y:2015:i:c:p:92-95
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.05.029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Constantin Bürgi & Mengdi Song, 2024. "Do Professional Forecasters Follow Uncovered Interest Rate Parity?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11338, CESifo.
    2. Marek A. Dąbrowski & Jakub Janus, 2024. "Does the Interest Parity Puzzle Hold for Central and Eastern European Economies?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 421-456, July.
    3. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Ogebe, Joseph O., 2019. "The validity of uncovered interest parity: Evidence from african members and non-member of the organisation of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 229-249.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Exchange rates; UIP; Eastern Europe; Structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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