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Sluggish US employment recovery after the Great Recession: Cyclical or structural factors?

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  • Lucchetta, Marcella
  • Paradiso, Antonio

Abstract

This paper aims at investigating the causes of the observed departure of employment path from the GDP movements occurred in US in the late of 2008 onwards. Starting from a production function approach, and assuming that the TFP growth is explained by variables linked to the business cycle, we are able to formulate an extended version of Okun’s law based on cyclical factors. Out-of-sample forecasting for the period 2008 onward shows that predicted US employment is on average 1.7% above the observed one, meaning that this gap cannot be attributed to identified cyclical factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucchetta, Marcella & Paradiso, Antonio, 2014. "Sluggish US employment recovery after the Great Recession: Cyclical or structural factors?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 109-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:123:y:2014:i:2:p:109-112
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.01.032
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2019. "GDP-Employment decoupling and the slow-down of productivity growth in Germany," IAB-Discussion Paper 201912, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2019. "Did financial factors matter during the Great Recession?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 26-30.
    3. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "Detecting unemployment hysteresis: A simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 115-118.
    4. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2023. "The heterogeneity of Okun's law: A metaregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Pitorac Ruxandra, 2015. "The Specifics Of Okun’S Law In The Romanian Economy Between 2007 And 2013," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 50-53, February.
    6. Michael Donadelli & Vahid Mojtahed & Antonio Paradiso, 2015. "Technological Progress, Investment Frictions and Business Cycle: New Insights from a Neoclassical Growth Model," Working Papers LuissLab 15119, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    7. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2020. "GDP-employment decoupling in Germany," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 82-98.
    8. Luz A. Flórez & Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2018. "Okun´s law in Colombia: a non-linear cointegration," Borradores de Economia 1039, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "GDP-Employment Decoupling and the Productivity Puzzle in Germany," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 485, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Okun’s law; Employment recovery; Cointegration; Structural and cyclical factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General

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