IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v117y2012i3p694-696.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The age distribution and business cycle volatility: International evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Lugauer, Steven
  • Redmond, Michael

Abstract

We estimate the age distribution’s effect on business cycle fluctuations across a large number of countries. A 10 percentage point increase in the middle-aged share of the population decreases output volatility by 15 percent for the average country.

Suggested Citation

  • Lugauer, Steven & Redmond, Michael, 2012. "The age distribution and business cycle volatility: International evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 694-696.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:117:y:2012:i:3:p:694-696
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.085
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176511006082
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.085?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    2. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2009. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 804-826, June.
    3. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Demographic Differences in Cyclical Employment Variation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 16(1), pages 61-79.
    4. Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
    5. Nir Jaimovich & Seth Pruitt & Henry E. Siu, 2009. "The demand for youth: implications for the hours volatility puzzle," International Finance Discussion Papers 964, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Lugauer, Steven, 2012. "Demographic Change And The Great Moderation In An Overlapping Generations Model With Matching Frictions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 706-731, November.
    7. Robert Shimer, 2001. "The Impact of Young Workers on the Aggregate Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(3), pages 969-1007.
    8. Steven Lugauer, 2012. "Estimating the Effect of the Age Distribution on Cyclical Output Volatility Across the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 896-902, November.
    9. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martin Iseringhausen & Hauke Vierke, 2019. "What Drives Output Volatility? The Role of Demographics and Government Size Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(4), pages 849-867, August.
    2. Gerdie Everaert & Hauke Vierke, 2016. "Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility: A Spurious Relationship?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1467-1477, November.
    3. Heer, Burkhard & Rohrbacher, Stefan & Scharrer, Christian, 2017. "Aging, The Great Moderation, And Business-Cycle Volatility In A Life-Cycle Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 362-383, March.
    4. Mennuni, Alessandro, 2019. "The aggregate implications of changes in the labour force composition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 83-106.
    5. Mario Holzner & Stefan Jestl & David Pichler, 2022. "Public and private pension systems and macroeconomic volatility in OECD countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 131-168, May.
    6. Mennuni, Alessandro, 2013. "Labor Force Composition and Aggregate Fluctuations," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 1302, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    7. Steven Lugauer, 2012. "The Supply of Skills in the Labor Force and Aggregate Output Volatility," Working Papers 005, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Steven Lugauer, 2012. "The Supply of Skills in the Labor Force and Aggregate Output Volatility," Working Papers 005, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
    2. Lugauer, Steven, 2012. "Demographic Change And The Great Moderation In An Overlapping Generations Model With Matching Frictions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 706-731, November.
    3. Mennuni, Alessandro, 2013. "Labor Force Composition and Aggregate Fluctuations," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 1302, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    4. Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
    5. Jedwab,Remi Camille & Pereira,Daniel & Roberts,Mark, 2019. "Cities of Workers, Children, or Seniors? Age Structure and Economic Growth in a Global Cross-Section of Cities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9040, The World Bank.
    6. Mennuni, Alessandro, 2019. "The aggregate implications of changes in the labour force composition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 83-106.
    7. Steven Lugauer, 2012. "Estimating the Effect of the Age Distribution on Cyclical Output Volatility Across the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 896-902, November.
    8. Cao, Huoqing & Chen, Shiyi & Xi, Xican, 2023. "Aging, migration, and structural transformation in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Greg Kaplan, 2014. "Business Cycles and Household Formation," 2014 Meeting Papers 82, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Heer, Burkhard & Rohrbacher, Stefan & Scharrer, Christian, 2017. "Aging, The Great Moderation, And Business-Cycle Volatility In A Life-Cycle Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 362-383, March.
    11. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2009. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 804-826, June.
    12. Daiji Kawaguchi & Tetsushi Murao, 2014. "Labor‐Market Institutions and Long‐Term Effects of Youth Unemployment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 95-116, October.
    13. Benjamin Wild Pugsley & Ay’egul ahin, 2019. "Grown-up Business Cycles," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(3), pages 1102-1147.
    14. Sebastian Dyrda & Greg Kaplan & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2012. "Business Cycles and Household Formation: The Micro vs the Macro Labor Elasticity," NBER Working Papers 17880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Mario Holzner & Stefan Jestl & David Pichler, 2022. "Public and private pension systems and macroeconomic volatility in OECD countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 131-168, May.
    16. Dantas Guimarães, Silvana & Ferreira Tiryaki, Gisele, 2020. "The impact of population aging on business cycles volatility: International evidence," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    17. Martin Iseringhausen & Hauke Vierke, 2019. "What Drives Output Volatility? The Role of Demographics and Government Size Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(4), pages 849-867, August.
    18. Steven Lugauer & Richard Jensen & Clayton Sadler, 2014. "An Estimate Of The Age Distribution'S Effect On Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 914-929, April.
    19. Janiak, Alexandre & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2016. "Towards a quantitative theory of automatic stabilizers: The role of demographics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 35-49.
    20. Zhang, Haifeng & Zhang, Hongliang & Zhang, Junsen, 2015. "Demographic age structure and economic development: Evidence from Chinese provinces," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 170-185.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Demographics; Panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. The age distribution and business cycle volatility: International evidence (EL 2012) in ReplicationWiki

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:117:y:2012:i:3:p:694-696. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.