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When are adaptive expectations rational? A generalization

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  • Shepherd, Ben

Abstract

This note presents a simple generalization of the adaptive expectations mechanism in which the learning parameter is time variant. Expectations generated in this way minimize mean squared forecast errors for any linear state space model.

Suggested Citation

  • Shepherd, Ben, 2012. "When are adaptive expectations rational? A generalization," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 4-6.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:1:p:4-6
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.11.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cuthbertson, Keith, 1988. "Expectations, Learning and the Kalman Filter," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 56(3), pages 223-246, September.
    2. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, December.
    3. H. Theil & S. Wage, 1964. "Some Observations on Adaptive Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 198-206, January.
    4. M. Nerlove & S. Wage, 1964. "On the Optimality of Adaptive Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 207-224, January.
    5. repec:adr:anecst:y:2002:i:67-68:p:05 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2002. "Why Does Data Reject the Lucas Critique," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 111-129.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dave, Chetan & Sorge, Marco M., 2020. "Sunspot-driven fat tails: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    2. Sorge, Marco M., 2013. "Generalized adaptive expectations revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 203-205.
    3. Homburg, Stefan, 2017. "A Study in Monetary Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198807537.
    4. Šimpach Ondřej & Langhamrová Jitka, 2013. "Forecasting Future Salaries in the Czech Republic Using Stochastic Modelling," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 4(2), pages 4-125, December.
    5. Findley, T. Scott, 2015. "Hyperbolic memory discounting and the political business cycle," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 345-359.
    6. Dave, Chetan & Sorge, Marco, 2023. "Fat Tailed DSGE Models: A Survey and New Results," Working Papers 2023-3, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adaptive expectations; Rational expectations; Kalman filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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