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Fiscal conservatism in a new democracy: "Sophisticated" versus "naïve" voters

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  • Arvate, Paulo Roberto
  • Avelino, George
  • Tavares, José

Abstract

We use data from gubernatorial elections in Brazil to test the electoral reactions of "sophisticated" and "naïve" voters to fiscal surpluses. Our results complement Brender and Drazen [Brender, Adi, and Drazen, A., (2005b), "How do budget deficits and economic growth affect reelection prospects? Evidence from a large cross-section of countries", NBER Working Paper 11862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts]: we find no evidence of fiscal illusion while, in some cases, a fiscal surplus may actually increase the probability of reelection.

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  • Arvate, Paulo Roberto & Avelino, George & Tavares, José, 2009. "Fiscal conservatism in a new democracy: "Sophisticated" versus "naïve" voters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 125-127, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:102:y:2009:i:2:p:125-127
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    1. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti & José Tavares, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 197-266.
    2. Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2005. "Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1271-1295, October.
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    6. Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2005. "How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Cross-Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 11862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcela Eslava, 2011. "The Political Economy Of Fiscal Deficits: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 645-673, September.
    2. Israel García, 2023. "Budget Forecast Errors in Spanish Municipalities: The Role of Transparency," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202327, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Albert Solé-Ollé & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2017. "Housing booms and busts and local fiscal policy," Working Papers XREAP2017-14, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Dec 2017.
    4. Garmann, Sebastian, 2017. "Political budget cycles and fiscally conservative voters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 72-75.
    5. Eslava, Marcela & Streb, Jorge M., 2011. "Comments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123271, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Jonatan Lautenschlage & Linda G. Veiga & Francisco J. Veiga, 2024. "The effects of fiscal policy management, candidacy of previous mayors, and illiteracy on mayoral reelection in Brazil," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 1345-1381, November.
    7. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2015. "Public investment and reelection prospects in developed countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(2), pages 471-500, October.
    8. Arsic, Milojko & Nojkovic, Aleksandra & Randjelovic, Sasa, 2017. "Determinants of discretionary fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 367-378.
    9. Klein, Fabio Alvim & Sakurai, Sergio Naruhiko, 2015. "Term limits and political budget cycles at the local level: evidence from a young democracy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 21-36.
    10. Sjahrir, Bambang Suharnoko & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Schulze, Günther G., 2013. "Political budget cycles in Indonesia at the district level," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 342-345.
    11. Alesina, A. & Passalacqua, A., 2016. "The Political Economy of Government Debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2599-2651, Elsevier.
    12. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01238883, HAL.
    13. Antoine CAZALS & Pierre MANDON, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers 201609, CERDI.
    14. Velibor Mačkić & Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić, 2017. "Competitiveness, consumer confidence and election outcomes," EFZG Working Papers Series 1704, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    15. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01320586, HAL.
    16. Jakob Haan & Jeroen Klomp, 2013. "Conditional political budget cycles: a review of recent evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 387-410, December.
    17. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2016. "Election cycles in natural resource rents: Empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 79-93.
    18. Paulo Reis Mourao,Ph.D, 2011. "Sins of the elder: Fiscal illusion in democracies," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 196(1), pages 9-35, january.
    19. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," CERDI Working papers halshs-01238883, HAL.
    20. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

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