Russia and the World Energy Markets: Long-term Scenarios

The paper focuses on energy markets in Russia. First, we look at the recent developments in the world energy markets and in Russian natural gas, oil, and electricity sectors. Then we consider different scenarios for a potential development of energy markets, both in Russia and in Russian trading partners. Using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, which is a general equilibrium model of the world economy, we consider different energy scenarios for the next 20-40 years. Our projections show energy use in Russia growing from 775 mtoe in 2005 to 1200 mtoe in 2050 in primary energy equivalence, while electricity use nearly doubles from about 1000 TWh in 2005 to 1900 TWh in 2050 in our reference projections. The energy system continues to rely heavily on traditional fossil energy. Our long-run reference projection for oil price is a continuous increase from $55/barrel in 2010 to $155/barrel in 2050 and for natural gas from $220/tcm in 2010 to $380/tcm in 2050. The model is not able to capture the volatility in energy prices that is commonly observed. The price projections should be seen as a long run trend around which there will likely continue to be volatility driven by short term events. Achieving the G8 goal of 50% greenhouse gas emissions reduction significantly changes our projections, reducing Russia’s fossil fuel production and domestic fuel and electricity use from the projected levels without such a policy.