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A structured war-gaming framework for managing extreme risks

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  • Liu, Shuang
  • Aurambout, Jean-Philippe
  • Villalta, Oscar
  • Edwards, Jacqueline
  • De Barro, Paul
  • Kriticos, Darren J.
  • Cook, David C.

Abstract

Extreme risks are challenging to learn from, prepare for and protect against, and they invite the development of new approaches to complement existing methods of risk management. We describe a systematic ex ante approach to support the strategic preparedness of risk management and apply it to a biosecurity case study. Our framework integrates a war-game model and a structured decision making approach. The model provides interactive maps that help stakeholders in visualizing the economic impacts of the extreme risk under different management scenarios, and it facilitates adaptive management by translating science-based results into stakeholder perspectives. The structured decision making approach not only offers an analytical structure to organize the multiple objectives of risk management, but also functions as a platform for group deliberation among alternative courses of management action with uncertain consequences. We found that this integration helped stakeholders develop a better understanding of the complexities and interconnectedness of the extreme risk management and reached a consensus regarding the most preferred management option.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Shuang & Aurambout, Jean-Philippe & Villalta, Oscar & Edwards, Jacqueline & De Barro, Paul & Kriticos, Darren J. & Cook, David C., 2015. "A structured war-gaming framework for managing extreme risks," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 369-377.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:116:y:2015:i:c:p:369-377
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.05.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shuang Liu & Kirsten Maclean & Cathy Robinson, 2019. "A cost-effective framework to prioritise stakeholder participation options," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 7(3), pages 221-241, November.
    2. David C. Cook & Jean-Philippe Aurambout & Oscar N. Villalta & Shuang Liu & Jacqueline Edwards & Savi Maharaj, 2016. "A bio-economic ‘war game’ model to simulate plant disease incursions and test response strategies at the landscape scale," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 37-48, February.
    3. Shuang Liu & David Cook, 2016. "Eradicate, contain, or live with it? Collaborating with stakeholders to evaluate responses to invasive species," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 49-59, February.
    4. Shuang Liu & David Cook, 2016. "Eradicate, contain, or live with it? Collaborating with stakeholders to evaluate responses to invasive species," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 49-59, February.
    5. David Cook & Jean-Philippe Aurambout & Oscar Villalta & Shuang Liu & Jacqueline Edwards & Savi Maharaj, 2016. "A bio-economic ‘war game’ model to simulate plant disease incursions and test response strategies at the landscape scale," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 37-48, February.

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