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Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed Technological Development

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  • Bostrom, Nick

Abstract

With very advanced technology, a very large population of people living happy lives could be sustained in the accessible region of the universe. For every year that development of such technologies and colonization of the universe is delayed, there is therefore a corresponding opportunity cost: a potential good, lives worth living, is not being realized. Given some plausible assumptions, this cost is extremely large. However, the lesson for standard utilitarians is not that we ought to maximize the pace of technological development, but rather that we ought to maximize its safety, i.e. the probability that colonization will eventually occur. This goal has such high utility that standard utilitarians ought to focus all their efforts on it. Utilitarians of a ‘person-affecting’ stripe should accept a modified version of this conclusion. Some mixed ethical views, which combine utilitarian considerations with other criteria, will also be committed to a similar bottom line.

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  • Bostrom, Nick, 2003. "Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed Technological Development," Utilitas, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 308-314, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:utilit:v:15:y:2003:i:03:p:308-314_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Tarsney & Teruji Thomas, 2020. "Non-Additive Axiologies in Large Worlds," Papers 2010.06842, arXiv.org.
    2. Nick Bostrom, 2017. "Strategic Implications of Openness in AI Development," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 8(2), pages 135-148, May.
    3. Naudé, Wim, 2023. "We Already Live in a Degrowth World, and We Do Not like It," IZA Discussion Papers 16191, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Matt Boyd & Nick Wilson, 2020. "The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 227-239, February.
    5. Jason G. Matheny, 2007. "Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 1335-1344, October.
    6. Matt Boyd & Nick Wilson, 2020. "Existential Risks to Humanity Should Concern International Policymakers and More Could Be Done in Considering Them at the International Governance Level," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(11), pages 2303-2312, November.
    7. Baum, Seth D. & Handoh, Itsuki C., 2014. "Integrating the planetary boundaries and global catastrophic risk paradigms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 13-21.
    8. Naudé, Wim, 2023. "Melancholy Hues: The Futility of Green Growth and Degrowth, and the Inevitability of Societal Collapse," IZA Discussion Papers 16139, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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