IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v70y2024ics1062940823001560.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Target rate factors in short rate models

Author

Listed:
  • Harju, Antti J.

Abstract

This study investigates the risk associated with the uncertainties in the central bank monetary policy targets in the context of short interest rate models. A class of models is proposed which admits two channels of interest rate risk. In a prototypical case, the short duration channel handles the uncertainties in the target rates decided in the forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee meetings. The target rate factors can be calibrated on the market values of the Fed funds futures. The long duration channel has traditional risk factors. The episodes following the Covid-19 outbreak and the 2022 rate hikes are used as examples in an empirical study.

Suggested Citation

  • Harju, Antti J., 2024. "Target rate factors in short rate models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:70:y:2024:i:c:s1062940823001560
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2023.102033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940823001560
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2023.102033?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Heitfield & Yang-Ho Park, 2019. "Inferring Term Rates from SOFR Futures Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
    3. Claudio Fontana & Zorana Grbac & Sandrine Gümbel & Thorsten Schmidt, 2020. "Term structure modelling for multiple curves with stochastic discontinuities," Post-Print hal-03898927, HAL.
    4. Don H. Kim & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Jumps in Bond Yields at Known Times," NBER Working Papers 20711, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Claudio Fontana & Zorana Grbac & Sandrine Gümbel & Thorsten Schmidt, 2020. "Term structure modelling for multiple curves with stochastic discontinuities," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 465-511, April.
    6. Backwell, Alex & Hayes, Joshua, 2022. "Expected and Unexpected Jumps in the Overnight Rate: Consistent Management of the Libor Transition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Karol Gellert & Erik Schlogl, 2021. "Short Rate Dynamics: A Fed Funds and SOFR Perspective," Research Paper Series 420, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "An Econometric Model of the Yield Curve with Macroeconomic Jump Effects," NBER Working Papers 8246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Markus Hess, 2020. "A pure-jump mean-reverting short rate model," Papers 2006.14814, arXiv.org.
    12. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    13. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:1:p:155-74 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Piazzesi, Monika, 2001. "An Econometric Model of the Yield Curve With Macroeconomic Jump Effects," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt5946p7hn, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    15. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alan Brace & Karol Gellert & Erik Schlögl, 2024. "SOFR term structure dynamics—Discontinuous short rates and stochastic volatility forward rates," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 936-985, June.
    2. Backwell, Alex & Hayes, Joshua, 2022. "Expected and Unexpected Jumps in the Overnight Rate: Consistent Management of the Libor Transition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Karol Gellert & Erik Schlogl, 2021. "Short Rate Dynamics: A Fed Funds and SOFR Perspective," Research Paper Series 420, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Tunaru, Diana, 2017. "Gaussian estimation and forecasting of the U.K. yield curve with multi-factor continuous-time models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 119-129.
    6. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2010. "China's official rates and bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 996-1007, May.
    7. Lin, Shih-Kuei & Wang, Shin-Yun & Chen, Carl R. & Xu, Lian-Wen, 2017. "Pricing Range Accrual Interest Rate Swap employing LIBOR market models with jump risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 359-373.
    8. Christopher S. Jones, 2003. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in the Short-Term Interest Rate," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 793-843, July.
    9. Jiang, George & Yan, Shu, 2009. "Linear-quadratic term structure models - Toward the understanding of jumps in interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 473-485, March.
    10. Ramaprasad Bhar, 2010. "Stochastic Filtering with Applications in Finance," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7736, September.
    11. Marek Rutkowski & Matthew Bickersteth, 2021. "Pricing and Hedging of SOFR Derivatives under Differential Funding Costs and Collateralization," Papers 2112.14033, arXiv.org.
    12. Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios, 2005. "A Class of Markovian Models for the Term Structure of Interest Rates Under Jump-Diffusions," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2005, January-A.
    13. Camilla LandÊn, 2000. "Bond pricing in a hidden Markov model of the short rate," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 371-389.
    14. Lin, Bing-Huei, 1999. "Fitting the term structure of interest rates for Taiwanese government bonds," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 331-352, November.
    15. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    16. Frank De Jong & Joost Driessen & Antoon Pelsser, 2001. "Libor Market Models versus Swap Market Models for Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 5(3), pages 201-237.
    17. João Nunes, 2011. "American options and callable bonds under stochastic interest rates and endogenous bankruptcy," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 283-332, October.
    18. Fergusson, Kevin, 2020. "Less-Expensive Valuation And Reserving Of Long-Dated Variable Annuities When Interest Rates And Mortality Rates Are Stochastic," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 381-417, May.
    19. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    20. repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2011, January-A.
    22. Moreno, Manuel & Platania, Federico, 2015. "A cyclical square-root model for the term structure of interest rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(1), pages 109-121.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Short rate; Monetary policy; Risk factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:70:y:2024:i:c:s1062940823001560. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.