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Oil price shocks and stock–bond correlation

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  • Ziadat, Salem Adel
  • Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq A.
  • Rehman, Mobeen
  • McMillan, David G.

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of oil as a determinant of the US stock–bond correlation. The analysis uses monthly data over the period from February 1990 to July 2021. We examine the impact of oil shocks, using the Ready (2018) method, alongside a range of macroeconomic variables on the nature of stock–bond dynamic correlation. Our main findings demonstrate that during recessionary periods, the stock–bond correlation is adversely and statistically explained by oil supply shocks, and that correlation tends to statistically diverge from that of it is counterpart during expansionary periods. In addition, demand shocks are more pronounced in periods of pessimistic investor sentiment, whereas supply and risk shocks appear during optimistic periods. From a risk management standpoint, a backtesting exercise shows that the incorporation of supply and demand shocks generally improves the forecast of portfolio volatility under various portfolio weighting schemes and market conditions. A time-varying hedging exercise also reveals that accounting for both demand and supply shocks reduces the cost of hedging, mainly following major crisis periods. The contribution of shocks appears most with a long position in the bond market after the 2014 oil crisis period. Our main results remain the same after performing a set of the robustness checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziadat, Salem Adel & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq A. & Rehman, Mobeen & McMillan, David G., 2023. "Oil price shocks and stock–bond correlation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:68:y:2023:i:c:s1062940823001122
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2023.101989
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wang, Shixuan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and movements in the US government bond risk premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Morana, Claudio & Beltratti, Andrea, 2008. "Comovements in international stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 31-45, February.
    3. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 305-318.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stocks; Bonds; Correlation; Oil; Shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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