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Forecasting stock index price using the CEEMDAN-LSTM model

Author

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  • Lin, Yu
  • Yan, Yan
  • Xu, Jiali
  • Liao, Ying
  • Ma, Feng

Abstract

This paper uses a mixture model that Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) combines with Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) to forecast stock index price of Standard & Poor's 500 index (S&P500) and China Securities 300 Index (CSI300). CEEMDAN decomposes original data to obtain several IMFs and one residue. The LSTM forecasting model utilizes the decomposed data to obtain the prediction sequences. The prediction sequences are reconstructed to gain final prediction. The paper introduces contrast models such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Backward Propagation (BP), Elman network, Wavelet Neural Networks (WAV) and their mixture models combined with the CEEMDAN. The MCS test is used as evaluation criterion and empirical results present that forecasting effects of CEEMDAN-LSTM is optimal in developed and emerging stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Yu & Yan, Yan & Xu, Jiali & Liao, Ying & Ma, Feng, 2021. "Forecasting stock index price using the CEEMDAN-LSTM model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:57:y:2021:i:c:s1062940821000553
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101421
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    Cited by:

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    3. Yang, Kailing & Zhang, Xi & Luo, Haojia & Hou, Xianping & Lin, Yu & Wu, Jingyu & Yu, Liang, 2024. "Predicting energy prices based on a novel hybrid machine learning: Comprehensive study of multi-step price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    4. Min Liu & Wei‐Chong Choo & Chi‐Chuan Lee & Chien‐Chiang Lee, 2023. "Trading volume and realized volatility forecasting: Evidence from the China stock market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 76-100, January.
    5. Gomez, William & Wang, Fu-Kwun & Lo, Shih-Che, 2024. "A hybrid approach based machine learning models in electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    6. Lin, Yu & Liao, Qidong & Lin, Zixiao & Tan, Bin & Yu, Yuanyuan, 2022. "A novel hybrid model integrating modified ensemble empirical mode decomposition and LSTM neural network for multi-step precious metal prices prediction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Zhang, Haipeng & Wang, Jianzhou & Qian, Yuansheng & Li, Qiwei, 2024. "Point and interval wind speed forecasting of multivariate time series based on dual-layer LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    8. Zhang, Junting & Liu, Haifei & Bai, Wei & Li, Xiaojing, 2024. "A hybrid approach of wavelet transform, ARIMA and LSTM model for the share price index futures forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    9. Hamid Nasiri & Mohammad Mehdi Ebadzadeh, 2022. "Multi-step-ahead Stock Price Prediction Using Recurrent Fuzzy Neural Network and Variational Mode Decomposition," Papers 2212.14687, arXiv.org.
    10. Guo, Jingjun & Zhao, Zhengling & Sun, Jingyun & Sun, Shaolong, 2022. "Multi-perspective crude oil price forecasting with a new decomposition-ensemble framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Dinesh K. Sharma & H. S. Hota & Kate Brown & Richa Handa, 2022. "Integration of genetic algorithm with artificial neural network for stock market forecasting," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(2), pages 828-841, June.
    12. Qin Lu & Jingwen Liao & Kechi Chen & Yanhui Liang & Yu Lin, 2024. "Predicting Natural Gas Prices Based on a Novel Hybrid Model with Variational Mode Decomposition," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(2), pages 639-678, February.
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    14. Wang, Jia & Wang, Xinyi & Wang, Xu, 2024. "International oil shocks and the volatility forecasting of Chinese stock market based on machine learning combination models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock index price forecasting; Long short-term memory; CEEMDAN; Mixture models; MCS test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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