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Monetary policy during speculative attacks: Are there adverse medium term effects?

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  • Bergman, U. Michael
  • Jellingsø, Mads

Abstract

This paper extends the currency crises model of Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjee (2000, 2001, 2004) in different directions. Our main result is that a tight monetary policy can have adverse effects beyond the short term and can potentially cause a currency crisis in the medium term, even in cases when the interest rate defense is successful and prevented a currency crisis in the short-run. In addition, we add a risk premium and find that this increases the likelihood of a crisis, can help explain contagion, and that prospective capital controls will increase the likelihood that such controls will be needed as an emergency measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Bergman, U. Michael & Jellingsø, Mads, 2010. "Monetary policy during speculative attacks: Are there adverse medium term effects?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 5-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:21:y:2010:i:1:p:5-18
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    Cited by:

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    2. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2018. "A model of currency crises with heterogeneous market beliefs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-195.
    3. Irem Zeyneloglu, 2018. "Currency The present paper analyzes the role of imports in the occurrence of a currency crisis. For this, it extends a third generation model with balance sheet effects by introducing imports as forei," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 2008-2015.
    4. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "The Effects of Productivity Shocks, Financial Shocks, and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 2545-2561, November.
    5. Farshid Pourshahabi & Nazar Dahmardeh, 2014. "The Effects of Economic Sanctions and Speculative Attacks on Inflation," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 18(3), pages 45-67, Autumn.
    6. Ryota Nakatani, 2016. "Twin Banking and Currency Crises and Monetary Policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 747-767, September.

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