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Self-Fulfilling Expectations, Speculative Attack, and Capital Controls

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  • Dellas, Harris
  • Stockman, Alan

Abstract

This paper examines the endogenous implementation of capital controls in the context of a fixed exchange rate regime. It is shown that if there exists a nonzero probability that the policymaker's response to a significant decrease in official foreign reserves will be the introduction of controls, a speculative attack may occur even when current and expected monetary policy is consistent with a permanently viable, control-free, fixed exchange rate regime. Consequently, capital controls may be the outcome of self-fulfilling expectations rather than the result of imprudent economic policies. Copyright 1993 by Ohio State University Press.

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  • Dellas, Harris & Stockman, Alan, 1993. "Self-Fulfilling Expectations, Speculative Attack, and Capital Controls," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 721-730, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:25:y:1993:i:4:p:721-30
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernard Bensaïd & Olivier Jeanne, 1996. "Fragilité des systèmes de change fixe et contrôle des capitaux," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 163-174.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Kitano, Shigeto, 2011. "Capital controls and welfare," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 700-710.
    4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1992. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 357-394, June.
    5. Stephen J. Turnovsky & Jian Xu, 2002. "Speculative Attacks and the Dynamics of Exchange Rates," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(2), pages 219-248, November.
    6. Reuven Glick & Xueyan Guo & Michael Hutchison, 2006. "Currency Crises, Capital-Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 698-714, November.
    7. Axel A. Weber, 1998. "Sources of Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 25, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:25:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Tai-kuang Ho & Ming-yen Wu, 2012. "Third-person Effect and Financial Contagion in the Context of a Global Game," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 823-846, November.
    10. Rodney Schmidt, 2001. "Efficient capital controls," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 199-212, September.
    11. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Harry Kelejian & George Tavlas & George Hondroyiannis, 2006. "A Spatial Modelling Approach to Contagion Among Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 423-441, December.
    13. Brahima Coulibaly, 2009. "Currency unions and currency crises: an empirical assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 199-221.
    14. Koopman, Robert B. & Arce, Hugh M. & Balistreri, Edward J. & Fox, Alan K., 2002. "Large Scale CGE Modeling at the United States International Trade Commission," Conference papers 331022, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Mundaca,B.G. & Strand,J., 1999. "Speculative attacks in the exchange market with a band policy : a sequential game analysis," Memorandum 01/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    16. Philippe Bacchetta, 1996. "Capital controls and the political discount: The Spanish experience in the late 1980s," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 349-369, October.
    17. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    18. Patrick Artus & Claude Jessua, 1996. "La spéculation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(3), pages 409-424.
    19. Bergman, U. Michael & Jellingsø, Mads, 2010. "Monetary policy during speculative attacks: Are there adverse medium term effects?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 5-18, March.
    20. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Makris, Miltiadis, 2001. "Necessary conditions for infinite-horizon discounted two-stage optimal control problems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1935-1950, December.
    22. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    23. George Hondroyiannis & Harry Kelejian & George Tavlas, 2009. "Spatial Aspects of Contagion among Emerging Economies," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 191-211.

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