IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/0403009.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Taylor rules, omitted variables, and interest rate smoothing in the US

Author

Listed:
  • Efrem Castelnuovo

    (University of Padua)

Abstract

We test for the presence of interest rate smoothing in forward looking Taylor rules in first differences. We also consider financial and asymmetric preferences indicators. We find that interest rate smoothing is not induced by an omitted variable bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Taylor rules, omitted variables, and interest rate smoothing in the US," Macroeconomics 0403009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0403009
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0403/0403009.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2006. "Describing The Fed’S Conduct With Taylor Rules: Is Interest Rate Smoothing Important?," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 57-77, August.
    2. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Describing the Fed's conduct with simple Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    4. Gabriel Srour, 2001. "Why Do Central Banks Smooth Interest Rates?," Staff Working Papers 01-17, Bank of Canada.
    5. William B. English & William R. Nelson & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "Interpreting the significance of lagged interest rate in estimated monetary policy rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Sack, Brian & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 205-228.
    7. Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2001. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?," Working Papers 2002_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Mar 2002.
    8. Surico, Paolo, 2003. "US Monetary Policy Rules: the Case for Asymmetric Preferences," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 199, Royal Economic Society.
    9. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    10. Guha, Debashis & Hiris, Lorene, 2002. "The aggregate credit spread and the business cycle," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 219-227.
    11. Gerlach-Kristen Petra, 2004. "Interest-Rate Smoothing: Monetary Policy Inertia or Unobserved Variables?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19, March.
    12. Alex Cukierman & V. Anton Muscatelli, 2002. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability? - Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 764, CESifo.
    13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Julio Carrillo & Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron, 2007. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks: A DSGE Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 1-38, June.
    3. Florio, Anna, 2006. "Asymmetric interest rate smoothing: The Fed approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 190-195, November.
    4. Paolo Surico, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: the Case of Asymmetric Preferences," Macroeconomics 0210002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Feb 2004.
    5. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2013. "Taylor Rule or optimal timeless policy? Reconsidering the Fed's behavior since 1982," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 113-123.
    6. Paulo R. Mota & Abel L. C. Fernandes, 2019. "The Dynamic Adjustment Of Central Banks’ Target Interest Rate: The Case Of The Ecb," FEP Working Papers 613, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    7. Owen F. Humpage & Sanchita Mukherjee, 2013. "Even keel and the Great Inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    8. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    9. John Driffill & Zeno Rotondi, 2007. "Inertia in Taylor Rules," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0720, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    10. Christian Aubin & Ibrahima Diouf & Dominique Pepin, 2010. "Inertie De La Politique Monétaire Dans La Zone Euro : Le Rôle De L'Hétérogénéité," Post-Print hal-00960030, HAL.
    11. Ansgar Belke & Wim Kösters & Martin Leschke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "Back to the rules," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 268/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    12. de Sá, Rodrigo & Savino Portugal, Marcelo, 2015. "Central bank and asymmetric preferences: An application of sieve estimators to the U.S. and Brazil," MPRA Paper 72746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Surico, Paolo, 2003. "US Monetary Policy Rules: the Case for Asymmetric Preferences," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 199, Royal Economic Society.
    14. Paolo Surico, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: The Case of Asymmetric Preferences (new title: The Fed's monetary policy rule and U.S. inflation: The case of asymmetric preferences)," CESifo Working Paper Series 1280, CESifo.
    15. Carlos Montoro, 2007. "Monetary Policy Committees and Interest Rate Smoothing," CEP Discussion Papers dp0780, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. de Sá, Rodrigo & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2015. "Central bank and asymmetric preferences: An application of sieve estimators to the U.S. and Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 72-83.
    18. Osama D. Sweidan, 2011. "Monetary policy inertia: case of Jordan," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(2), pages 144-155, May.
    19. Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano Aragón & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2008. "Nonlinearities in Central Bank of Brazil’s reaction function: the case of asymmetric preferences," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807151356590, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    20. Hayat, Aziz & Mishra, Sagarika, 2010. "Federal reserve monetary policy and the non-linearity of the Taylor rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1292-1301, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor rules; Interest rate smoothing; Serial correlation; Observational equivalence; Omitted variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0403009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.