Average and heterogeneous effects of political party on state education finance and outcomes: Regression discontinuity evidence across U.S. election cycles

In the U.S., state politicians directly influence legislation and budget decisions that can substantially affect public education spending and students. (When) does the political party of elected officials matter for these outcomes? We introduce a novel multi-dimensional regression discontinuity design to analyze close legislative elections from 1987 to 2019 and find that the impact of Democratic control of state government depends on election timing. Democratic state houses appropriate fewer dollars to K-12 education following a presidential election year, but significantly more during off-cycle elections. These patterns are magnified—for both K-12 and higher education—when Democrats control both legislative chambers. Increases in appropriations coincide with increased current expenditures in K-12 and higher high school diploma rates. Our results highlight the importance of considering how federal political contexts and control over multiple government branches influence the effects of partisanship on states’ education finance and outcomes.