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Interest rate-growth differential and government debt dynamics

Author

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  • Checherita-Westphal, Cristina

Abstract

The difference between the average interest rate that governments pay on their debt and the nominal growth rate of the economy (i-g) is a key variable for debt dynamics and sovereign sustainability analysis. Recently, i-g has turned negative in most advanced economies, including euro area sovereigns. Empirically, the relevant interest rate-growth differential for public debt dynamics above has been positive for advanced mature economies over longer periods. In particular, i-g can quickly reverse in crisis times, especially for countries with high debt burdens and/or not perceived by markets as safe havens. Overall, In the euro area, the current low interest rate-growth differentials on government debt should not be taken as an incentive for higher debt levels, especially where fiscal space is constrained. JEL Classification: H68, E62, E4

Suggested Citation

  • Checherita-Westphal, Cristina, 2019. "Interest rate-growth differential and government debt dynamics," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2019:0002:6
    Note: 1790315
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Buchner, 2020. "Fiscal Policy in an Age of Secular Stagnation," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 398-429, September.
    2. Giovanni Cicceri & Giuseppe Inserra & Michele Limosani, 2020. "A Machine Learning Approach to Forecast Economic Recessions—An Italian Case Study," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, February.
    3. Jan Priewe, 2020. "Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion: Grenzwerte für Defizite und Schulden in der Kritik [A Critique of the Caps on Deficits and Debt in the European Monetary Union]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(7), pages 538-544, July.
    4. Jan Priewe, 2020. "Why 60 and 3 percent? European debt and deficit rules - critique and alternatives," IMK Studies 66-2020, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Navarro-Ortiz, Josep & Sapena, Juan, 2020. "Is external debt sustainable? A probabilistic approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-153.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt; deficits; interest rate-growth differential;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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