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Is the European debt crisis a mere balance of payments crisis?

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  • Guerreiro, David

Abstract

This paper is interested in linking formally external disequilibrium to the sovereign debt crisis which the EMU is experiencing since 2009. Relying on the CHEER approach that connects the goods market to the capital market, we show that when a country belonging to a monetary union faces external disequilibrium relative to its main partner, the corresponding interest rate differential increases. Moreover, when these imbalances are persistent, it may trigger a balance of payments crisis. Our findings indicate that this phenomenon seems to be at play for the European countries under international assistance.

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  • Guerreiro, David, 2014. "Is the European debt crisis a mere balance of payments crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 50-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:44:y:2014:i:s1:p:s50-s56
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.04.029
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    2. Neaime, Simon & Gaysset, Isabelle & Badra, Nasser, 2018. "The eurozone debt crisis: A structural VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 22-33.
    3. Meier, Samira & Rodriguez Gonzalez, Miguel & Kunze, Frederik, 2021. "The global financial crisis, the EMU sovereign debt crisis and international financial regulation: lessons from a systematic literature review," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Mirdala, Rajmund & Ruščáková, Anna, 2015. "On Origins and Implications of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 68859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Anna Ruščáková & Jozefína Semančíková, 2016. "European Debt Crisis: Theoretical And Empirical Investigation Of External Imbalances As One Of Its Main Causes," Poslovna izvrsnost/Business Excellence, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 10(2), pages 191-207.
    6. Panayotis Michaelides & Mike Tsionas & Panos Xidonas, 2020. "A Bayesian Signals Approach for the Detection of Crises," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 551-585, September.

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