IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v26y2009i6p1341-1354.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

Author

Listed:
  • Babiker, Mustafa
  • Gurgel, Angelo
  • Paltsev, Sergey
  • Reilly, John

Abstract

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO2 price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO2 price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented.

Suggested Citation

  • Babiker, Mustafa & Gurgel, Angelo & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John, 2009. "Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1341-1354, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:6:p:1341-1354
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264-9993(09)00103-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henry D. Jacoby & Richard S. Eckaus & Denny A. Ellerman & Ronald G. Prinn & David M. Reiner & Zili Yang, 1997. "CO2 Emissions Limits: Economic Adjustments and the Distribution of Burdens," The Energy Journal, , vol. 18(3), pages 31-58, July.
    2. McFarland, J. R. & Reilly, J. M. & Herzog, H. J., 2004. "Representing energy technologies in top-down economic models using bottom-up information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 685-707, July.
    3. John Reilly, Marcus Sarofim, Sergey Paltsev and Ronald Prinn, 2006. "The Role of Non-CO2 GHGs in Climate Policy: Analysis Using the MIT IGSM," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 503-520.
    4. Rutherford, Thomas F., 1995. "Extension of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1299-1324, November.
    5. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    6. Babiker, Mustafa & Reilly, John M. & Jacoby, Henry D., 2000. "The Kyoto Protocol and developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 525-536, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nordhaus, William, 2013. "Integrated Economic and Climate Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1069-1131, Elsevier.
    2. S. Paltsev & J. Reilly & H. Jacoby & A. Gurgel & G. Metcalf & A. Sokolov & J. Holak, 2007. "Assessment of U.S. Cap-and-Trade Proposals," Working Papers 0705, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    3. Mort Webster, 2008. "Incorporating Path Dependency into Decision-Analytic Methods: An Application to Global Climate-Change Policy," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 60-75, June.
    4. Sven M. Flakowski, 2004. "Formulating and Solving Exhaustible Resource Models as Mixed Complementarity Problems in GAMS," Computers in Higher Education Economics Review, Economics Network, University of Bristol, vol. 16(1), pages 18-25.
    5. Babiker, Mustafa H., 2005. "Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 421-445, March.
    6. Ian Sue Wing, 2000. "Limiting CO2 Emissions in a Federal System: Understanding and Mitigating the Cost of U.S. Climate Policy At the State Level," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600093, EcoMod.
    7. Webster, Mort & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John, 2010. "The hedge value of international emissions trading under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1787-1796, April.
    8. Arun Singh & Niven Winchester & Valerie J. Karplus, 2019. "Evaluating India’S Climate Targets: The Implications Of Economy-Wide And Sector-Specific Policies," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(03), pages 1-29, August.
    9. P. Capros & Denise Van Regemorter & Leonidas Paroussos & P. Karkatsoulis & C. Fragkiadakis & S. Tsani & I. Charalampidis & Tamas Revesz, 2013. "GEM-E3 Model Documentation," JRC Research Reports JRC83177, Joint Research Centre.
    10. Babiker, Mustafa & Reilly, John & Ellerman, Denny, 2000. "Japanese Nuclear Power and the Kyoto Agreement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 169-188, September.
    11. Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Targets for global climate policy: An overview," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 911-928.
    12. Babiker, Mustafa H. & Metcalf, Gilbert E. & Reilly, John, 2003. "Tax distortions and global climate policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 269-287, September.
    13. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    14. Umakrishnan, K.U., 2004. "Income Convergence under the New Economic Model: The Experience of Latin American and Caribbean Countries," Conference papers 331253, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Mustafa Hussein Babiker & Mohammed A. Fehaid, 2011. "Climate Change Policy in the MENA Region: Prospects, Challenges, and the Implication of Market Instruments," Working Papers 588, Economic Research Forum, revised 05 Jan 2011.
    16. Viguier, Laurent L. & Babiker, Mustafa H. & Reilly, John M., 2003. "The costs of the Kyoto Protocol in the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 459-481, April.
    17. Karplus, Valerie J. & Paltsev, Sergey & Babiker, Mustafa & Reilly, John M., 2013. "Applying engineering and fleet detail to represent passenger vehicle transport in a computable general equilibrium model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 295-305.
    18. Gurgel, Angelo Costa, 2012. "Costs of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Brazil," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125937, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Qi, Tianyu & Winchester, Niven & Karplus, Valerie J. & Zhang, Da & Zhang, Xiliang, 2016. "An analysis of China's climate policy using the China-in-Global Energy Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 650-660.
    20. Karplus, Valerie J. & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John M., 2010. "Prospects for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the United States and Japan: A general equilibrium analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 620-641, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:6:p:1341-1354. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.