IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v141y2024ics0264999324002566.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Government debt and stock bubbles in China

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Miao
  • Wang, Wenfu

Abstract

Herein, we used Vector Autoregressive and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models to examine the relation between central government debt and stock bubbles in China. The empirical findings indicate a considerable negative correlation between central government debt and stock bubbles. The model's results also illustrate that the liquidity substitution effect mainly drives a negative linkage. When commercial banks hold government debt, the effect establishes a connection between central government debt and asset bubbles through commercial banks' balance sheets. Further analysis indicates that countercyclical fiscal policies impact the negative correlation between government debt and stock bubbles. The findings suggest that governments should regulate debt levels to manage asset bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Miao & Wang, Wenfu, 2024. "Government debt and stock bubbles in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:141:y:2024:i:c:s0264999324002566
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106899
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999324002566
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106899?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1043-1078, November.
    2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1702-1725, September.
    3. H. Ahmed & SM. Miller, 2000. "Crowding‐out and crowding‐in effects of the components of government expenditure," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(1), pages 124-133, January.
    4. Markus Brunnermeier & Simon Rother & Isabel Schnabel & Itay Goldstein, 2020. "Asset Price Bubbles and Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(9), pages 4272-4317.
    5. Broner, Fernando & Erce, Aitor & Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2014. "Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 114-142.
    6. Lee, Kuan-Hui & Sapriza, Horacio & Wu, Yangru, 2016. "Sovereign debt ratings and stock liquidity around the World," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 99-112.
    7. Aoki, Kosuke & Nikolov, Kalin, 2015. "Bubbles, banks and financial stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 33-51.
    8. Kirchner, Markus & Wijnbergen, Sweder van, 2016. "Fiscal deficits, financial fragility, and the effectiveness of government policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 51-68.
    9. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    10. Sosa-Padilla, César, 2018. "Sovereign defaults and banking crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 88-105.
    11. Demirci, Irem & Huang, Jennifer & Sialm, Clemens, 2019. "Government debt and corporate leverage: International evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 337-356.
    12. Tomohiro Hirano & Noriyuki Yanagawa, 2017. "Asset Bubbles, Endogenous Growth, and Financial Frictions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(1), pages 406-443.
    13. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Pengfei, 2015. "Banking bubbles and financial crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 763-792.
    14. Feng Dong & Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 68-98, August.
    15. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2018. "Asset Bubbles and Credit Constraints," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2590-2628, September.
    16. Jordi Gal?, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 721-752, March.
    17. Li, Bing & Liu, Qing, 2017. "On the choice of monetary policy rules for China: A Bayesian DSGE approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 166-185.
    18. Liu, Dehong & Gu, Hongmei & Xing, Tiancai, 2016. "The meltdown of the Chinese equity market in the summer of 2015," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 504-517.
    19. Cui, Wei, 2016. "Monetary–fiscal interactions with endogenous liquidity frictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-25.
    20. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sebastian A. Merkel & Yuliy Sannikov, 2020. "The Fiscal Theory of Price Level with a Bubble," NBER Working Papers 27116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Speculative Bubbles and Financial Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 184-221, July.
    22. Luisa Corrado & Tobias Schuler, 2018. "Financial Cycles, Credit Bubbles and Stabilization Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7422, CESifo.
    23. Ákos Dombi & István Dedák, 2019. "Public debt and economic growth: what do neoclassical growth models teach us?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(29), pages 3104-3121, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hirano, Tomohiro & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2024. "Bubble economics," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    2. Dong, Feng & Xu, Zhiwei, 2022. "Bubbly bailout," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    3. Chenxi Wang, 2023. "Asset bubbles and frictional intermediation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 76(3), pages 921-961, October.
    4. Blot, Christophe & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2024. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Siddhartha Biswas & Andrew Hanson & Toan Phan, 2020. "Bubbly Recessions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 33-70, October.
    6. Jia Pengfei & Lim King Yoong, 2021. "Tax Policy and Toxic Housing Bubbles in China," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 151-183, January.
    7. Jordi Galí, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Bubbles in a New Keynesian Model with Overlapping Generations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 121-167, April.
    8. Chan, Ying Tung & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2024. "Optimal monetary policy responses to carbon and green bubbles:A two-sector DSGE analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    9. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2018. "The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 505-539, August.
    10. Jacopo Bonchi, 2023. "Asset Price Bubbles and Monetary Policy: Revisiting the Nexus at the Zero Lower Bound," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 186-203, January.
    11. Bonchi, Jacopo & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2024. "Optimal monetary policy and rational asset bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    12. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang & Jing Zhou, 2022. "Asset Bubbles and Foreign Interest Rate Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 315-348, April.
    13. Michau, Jean-Baptiste & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2023. "Wealth preference and rational bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    14. Hudepohl, Tom & van Lamoen, Ryan & de Vette, Nander, 2021. "Quantitative easing and exuberance in stock markets: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    15. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Xavier Raurich & Thomas Seegmuller, 2024. "Rational bubbles on assets with a fundamental value," AMSE Working Papers 2408, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    16. Zhang, Xiaoming & Wei, Chunyan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Tian, Yiming, 2023. "Systemic risk of Chinese financial institutions and asset price bubbles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Ken‐ichi Hashimoto & Ryonghun Im & Takuma Kunieda & Akihisa Shibata, 2022. "Asset bubbles, unemployment, and financial market frictions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1806-1832, October.
    18. Hirano, Tomohiro & Inaba, Masaru & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 2015. "Asset bubbles and bailouts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 71-89.
    19. Nina Biljanovska & Lucyna Gornicka & Alexandros Vardoulakis, 2019. "Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price Bubbles," IMF Working Papers 2019/184, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Sahar Bashiri & Mosayeb Pahlavani & Reza Boostani, 2017. "Stock Market Bubbles and Business Cycles: A DSGE Model for the Iranian Economy," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 21(4), pages 969-1002, Autumn.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government debt; Asset bubbles; Liquidity premium; DSGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:141:y:2024:i:c:s0264999324002566. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.