IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pri/econom/2020-47.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level with a Bubble

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Brunnermeier

    (Princeton University)

  • Sebastian Merkel

    (Princeton University)

  • Yuliy Sannikov

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

This paper incorporates a bubble term in the standard FTPL equation to explain why countries with persistently negative primary surpluses can have a positively valued currency and low inflation. It also provides an example with closed-form solutions in which idiosyncratic risk on capital returns depresses the interest rate on government bonds below the economy’s growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Brunnermeier & Sebastian Merkel & Yuliy Sannikov, 2020. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level with a Bubble," Working Papers 2020-47, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:econom:2020-47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/markus/files/04a_ftpl_bubble_paper.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    2. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19.
    3. Miao, Jianjun, 2014. "Introduction to economic theory of bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 130-136.
    4. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2024. "The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(4), pages 1309-1347, July.
    5. Bassetto, Marco & Cui, Wei, 2018. "The fiscal theory of the price level in a world of low interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 5-22.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 381-399.
    7. J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    8. Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv & Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1553-1595.
    9. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hidekazu Niwa, 2023. "An Expansionary Effect of QE Not via the Signaling Channel," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(2), pages 1063-1069.
    2. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2020. "Manufacturing Risk-free Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 27786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Marco Bassetto & Wei Cui, 2024. "A Ramsey Theory of Financial Distortions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(8), pages 2612-2654.
    4. Jérôme Creel, 2021. "Establishing a Fiscal Dialogue in Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(3), pages 339-355, September.
    5. Barthélemy, Jean & Mengus, Eric & Plantin, Guillaume, 2024. "The central bank, the treasury, or the market: Which one determines the price level?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    6. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sebastian Merkel & Yuliy Sannikov, 2021. "A Safe-Asset Perspective for an Integrated Policy Framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 8, pages 302-332, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Masera, Rainer, 2023. "The Challenges Eurozone Stagflation Poses for Households, Businesses and High-Debt Countries: Some Possible Solutions," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 76(4), pages 547-566.
    8. David Staines, 2023. "Stochastic Equilibrium the Lucas Critique and Keynesian Economics," Papers 2312.16214, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    9. Makoto Saito, 2021. "Public Bonds as Money Substitutes at Near-Zero Interest Rates: Disequilibrium Analysis of the Current and Future Japanese Economy," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, in: Strong Money Demand in Financing War and Peace, pages 79-119, Springer.
    10. Ly Dai Hung, 2022. "Economic Growth and Inflation Tradeoffs within Global Stagflation: Evidence in Vietnam Economy," Working Papers hal-03774248, HAL.
    11. Ly Dai Hung, 2022. "Safe Assets at Financial Globalization," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(03), pages 1-21, October.
    12. Marco Bassetto & David S. Miller, 2022. "A Monetary-Fiscal Theory of Sudden Inflations," Staff Report 641, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    13. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Olijslagers, Stan & de Vette, Nander, 2020. "Debt sustainability when r - g," CEPR Discussion Papers 15478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Jiang, Shifu, 2024. "The effect of monetary policies on inflation: A fiscal perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    15. Pierre L Siklos, 2022. "Monetary, fiscal and demographic interactions in Japan: impact and a comparative assessment," Working Papers halshs-03776217, HAL.
    16. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sebastian, Sannikov, Yuliy Merkel & Sebastian Merkel, 2021. "Debt as Safe Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 9500, CESifo.
    17. Vadim Elenev & Tim Landvoigt & Patrick J. Shultz & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Can Monetary Policy Create Fiscal Capacity?," NBER Working Papers 29129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "Economic Convergence With Safe Assets," Working Papers hal-03662832, HAL.
    19. Sweder van Wijnbergen & Stan Olijslagers & Nander de Vette, 2020. "Debt sustainability when r - g smaller than 0: no free lunch after all," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-079/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Masataka Eguchi & Toshiya Hatano, 2023. "What is fiscal sustainability?―Transversality condition, Domar condition, the fiscal theory of the price level―," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 19(3), pages 1-29, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    2. Mr. Roger Farmer & Pawel Zabczyk, 2019. "A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," IMF Working Papers 2019/219, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Roger E.A. Farmer & Pawel Zabczyk, 2019. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy When People Have Finite Lives," NBER Working Papers 25445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sebastian, Sannikov, Yuliy Merkel & Sebastian Merkel, 2021. "Debt as Safe Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 9500, CESifo.
    5. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.
    6. Kollmann, Robert, 2022. "A tractable overlapping generations structure for quantitative DSGE models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    7. Raurich, Xavier & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2019. "On the interplay between speculative bubbles and productive investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 400-420.
    8. Panizza, Ugo & Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & ,, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Fischer, Thomas, 2017. "Thomas Piketty and the rate of time preference," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 111-133.
    10. Marco Bassetto & Thomas J. Sargent, 2020. "Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 659-690, August.
    11. Willem H. Buiter, 2003. "James Tobin: An Appreciation of his Contribution to Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(491), pages 585-631, November.
    12. Gerhard Sorger, 2019. "Bubbles and cycles in the Solow–Swan model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 193-221, August.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2021. "Revisiting speculative hyperinflations in monetary models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 1-11, April.
    14. Jianjun Miao, 2016. "Introduction to the symposium on bubbles, multiple equilibria, and economic activities," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 207-214, February.
    15. Katagiri, Mitsuru & Konishi, Hideki & Ueda, Kozo, 2020. "Aging and deflation from a fiscal perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 1-15.
    16. Jordi Galí, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Bubbles in a New Keynesian Model with Overlapping Generations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 121-167, April.
    17. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
    18. Philippe Weil, 2008. "Overlapping Generations: The First Jubilee," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    19. Berentsen, Aleksander & Waller, Christopher, 2018. "Liquidity premiums on government debt and the fiscal theory of the price level," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 173-182.
    20. Koumparoulis, Dimitrios, 2006. "Ευρωπαϊκή Δημοσιονομική Πολιτική Και Οικονομική Μεγέθυνση: Η Νεοκλασική Οικονομική Θεωρία Για Την Περίπτωση Της Ελλάδας [European Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: The Neoclassical Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 44310, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Monetary Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pri:econom:2020-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bobray Bordelon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.