IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v137y2024ics0264999324001123.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The long-run effects of monetary policy: The role of R&D investment in economic growth

Author

Listed:
  • Alam, M. Jahangir
  • Alvi, Eskander

Abstract

This study examines the long-term economic effects of monetary policy, focusing on its impact on research and development (R&D) investment and firm productivity. Using data from Compustat, we analyze productivity’s response to monetary policy shocks, with an emphasis on the role of firm size, age, and leverage as indicators of credit constraints. We use high-frequency financial market data to identify monetary policy shocks through a local projections–instrumental variables (LP-IV) approach. Our findings reveal that smaller, younger, and less leveraged firms are more adversely affected by contractionary monetary policies, suggesting a significant impact on their R&D investments and subsequent productivity, particularly in the manufacturing sector. The findings also highlight that tight monetary policy has a persistent negative impact on firm productivity via reduced R&D investment, underscoring the need for policies like R&D subsidies to support long-term economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Alam, M. Jahangir & Alvi, Eskander, 2024. "The long-run effects of monetary policy: The role of R&D investment in economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:137:y:2024:i:c:s0264999324001123
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106756
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999324001123
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106756?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Garga, Vaishali & Singh, Sanjay R., 2021. "Output hysteresis and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 871-886.
    2. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2020. "The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 22-40.
    3. Alam, M. Jahangir, 2020. "Capital misallocation: Cyclicality and sources," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Pablo Ottonello & Thomas Winberry, 2020. "Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2473-2502, November.
    5. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    6. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    7. Moran, Patrick & Queralto, Albert, 2018. "Innovation, productivity, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 24-41.
    8. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Testing long-run neutrality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 69-101.
    9. Philippon, Thomas & Gutierrez, German, 2017. "Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S," CEPR Discussion Papers 12536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Kudlyak, Marianna & Sánchez, Juan M., 2017. "Revisiting the behavior of small and large firms during the 2008 financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 48-69.
    11. Bond, Steve & Hashemi, Arshia & Kaplan, Greg & Zoch, Piotr, 2021. "Some unpleasant markup arithmetic: Production function elasticities and their estimation from production data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 1-14.
    12. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    13. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    14. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    15. Bournakis, Ioannis & Mallick, Sushanta, 2018. "TFP estimation at firm level: The fiscal aspect of productivity convergence in the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 579-590.
    16. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    17. Nicolas Crouzet & Neil R. Mehrotra, 2020. "Small and Large Firms over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(11), pages 3549-3601, November.
    18. Matthias Kehrig, 2011. "The Cyclicality of Productivity Dispersion," 2011 Meeting Papers 484, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    20. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance, and Investment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2586-2634.
    21. Bournakis Ioannis & Ramírez-Rondán Nelson R., 2024. "Does Uncertainty Matter for the Fiscal Consolidation and Investment Nexus?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 529-559, January.
    22. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    23. David R. Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi & Kunal Sangani, 2024. "The Supply-Side Effects of Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1065-1112.
    24. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout & Gabriel Unger, 2020. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications [“Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 561-644.
    25. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    26. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2009. "On estimating firm-level production functions using proxy variables to control for unobservables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 112-114, September.
    27. Yueran Ma & Kaspar Zimmermann, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Innovation," NBER Working Papers 31698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morlacco, Monica & Zeke, David, 2021. "Monetary policy, customer capital, and market power," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 116-134.
    2. Lu, Dong & Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi, 2023. "China's monetary policy surprises and corporate real investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2021. "Monetary Policy, External Finance and Investment," Working Papers 92, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    4. Priit Jeenas, 2023. "Firm Balance Sheet Liquidity, Monetary Policy Shocks, and Investment Dynamics," Working Papers 1409, Barcelona School of Economics.
    5. Hartwig, Benny & Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2020. "Monetary policy, firm exit and productivity," Discussion Papers 61/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Horn, Carl-Wolfram & Fischer, Johannes J., 2021. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Mergers and Acquisitions?," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242445, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Lee, Sukjoon, 2020. "Liquidity Premium, Credit Costs, and Optimal Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 104825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Cooper Howes, 2019. "Financial Constraints, Sectoral Heterogeneity, and the Cyclicality of Investment," 2019 Meeting Papers 1581, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Singh, Aarti & Suda, Jacek & Zervou, Anastasia, 2021. "Heterogeneous labour market response to monetary policy: small versus large firms," Working Papers 2021-07, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2021.
    10. Romain Duval & Davide Furceri & Raphaël Lee & Marina M. Tavares, 2024. "Market power and monetary policy transmission," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 669-700, April.
    11. Martina Jasova & Caterina Mendicino & Ettore Panetti & José-Luis Peydró & Dominik Supera, 2021. "Monetary policy, labor income redistribution and the credit channel: Evidence from matched employer-employee and credit registers," Economics Working Papers 1832, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2023.
    12. Bahaj, Saleem Abubakr & Foulis, Angus & Pinter, Gabor & Surico, Paolo, 2018. "Employment and the collateral channel of monetary policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100934, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Bahaj, Saleem & Foulis, Angus & Pinter, Gabor & Surico, Paolo, 2022. "Employment and the residential collateral channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 26-44.
    14. Matthias Meier & Timo Reinelt, 2024. "Monetary Policy, Markup Dispersion, and Aggregate TFP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1012-1027, July.
    15. Döttling, Robin & Ratnovski, Lev, 2023. "Monetary policy and intangible investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 53-72.
    16. Auer, Simone & Bernardini, Marco & Cecioni, Martina, 2021. "Corporate leverage and monetary policy effectiveness in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    17. Durante, Elena & Ferrando, Annalisa & Vermeulen, Philip, 2022. "Monetary policy, investment and firm heterogeneity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    18. Deng, Minjie & Fang, Min, 2022. "Debt maturity heterogeneity and investment responses to monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    19. Jamil, Nida & Chaudhry, Theresa Thompson & Chaudhry, Azam, 2022. "Trading textiles along the new silk route: The impact on Pakistani firms of gaining market access to China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    20. Filippo Biondi & Sergio Inferrera & Matthias Mertens & Javier Miranda, 2023. "Declining Business Dynamism in Europe: The Role of Shocks, Market Power, and Technology," Jena Economics Research Papers 2023-011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Long-term effects; R&D; Productivity; LP-IV;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:137:y:2024:i:c:s0264999324001123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.