IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v73y2022icp546-562.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic uncertainty and natural language processing; The case of Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Charemza, Wojciech
  • Makarova, Svetlana
  • Rybiński, Krzysztof

Abstract

The paper proposes a method of constructing text-based country-specific measures for economic policy uncertainty. To avoid problems of translation and human validation costs, we apply natural language processing and sentiment analysis to construct such measures for Russia. We compare our measure with that developed earlier using direct translations from English and human validation. In this comparison, our measure does equally well at evaluating the uncertainty related to key events that affected Russia between 1994 and 2018 and performs better at detecting the effects of uncertainty in Russia’s industrial production.

Suggested Citation

  • Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana & Rybiński, Krzysztof, 2022. "Economic uncertainty and natural language processing; The case of Russia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 546-562.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:73:y:2022:i:c:p:546-562
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.11.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592621001612
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2021.11.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Wensheng Kang & Jing Wang, 2021. "Corporate tax effects of economic policy uncertainty," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(S1), pages 2577-2600, April.
    3. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Gls-Based Unit Root Tests With Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both The Null And The Alternative Hypotheses," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1754-1792, December.
    4. Segal, Gill & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Yaron, Amir, 2015. "Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 369-397.
    5. Mike Thelwall & Kevan Buckley & Georgios Paltoglou & Di Cai & Arvid Kappas, 2010. "Sentiment strength detection in short informal text," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 61(12), pages 2544-2558, December.
    6. José Daniel Aromí, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty through word vector representations," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 63, pages 135-156, January-D.
    7. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    8. Guan, Jialin & Xu, Huijuan & Huo, Da & Hua, Yechun & Wang, Yunfeng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    10. Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Path forecast evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 635-662.
    11. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    12. Ozturk, Ezgi O. & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2018. "Measuring global and country-specific uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 276-295.
    13. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Alice Kones & Ali Kutan, 2016. "Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in the United States," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 62(1), pages 37-49.
    15. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2019. "Crimea and punishment: the impact of sanctions on Russian economy and economies of the euro area," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 39-51.
    16. Hou, Xiaohui & Wang, Tengyu & Ma, Caoyuan, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate fraud," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 97-110.
    17. Grün, Bettina & Hornik, Kurt, 2011. "topicmodels: An R Package for Fitting Topic Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 40(i13).
    18. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    19. Huayu Shen & Man Zhang & Runxin Liu & Fei Hou, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Innovation - Evidence From China," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-7.
    20. Le Luo & Li Li, 2014. "Defining and Evaluating Classification Algorithm for High-Dimensional Data Based on Latent Topics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, January.
    21. Hossain, Akhand Akhtar & Arwatchanakarn, Popkarn, 2020. "The effect of economic uncertainty on narrow money demand and its stability in New Zealand: An empirical investigation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 88-100.
    22. Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres & Hirschbühl, Dominik & Onorante, Luca & Saiz, Lorena, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty in the euro area: an unsupervised machine learning approach," Working Paper Series 2359, European Central Bank.
    23. Atsu, Francis & Adams, Samuel, 2021. "Energy consumption, finance, and climate change: Does policy uncertainty matter?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 490-501.
    24. Dibiasi, Andreas & Abberger, Klaus & Siegenthaler, Michael & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2018. "The effects of policy uncertainty on investment: Evidence from the unexpected acceptance of a far-reaching referendum in Switzerland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 38-67.
    25. Vegard Høghaug Larsen, 2021. "Components Of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 769-788, May.
    26. Spilimbergo, Antonio & Jirasavetakul, La-Bhus, 2018. "Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey," CEPR Discussion Papers 13352, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
    28. Ghirelli, Corinna & Pérez, Javier J. & Urtasun, Alberto, 2019. "A new economic policy uncertainty index for Spain," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 64-67.
    29. Rostislav Kapelyushnikov & Andrei Kuznetsov & Olga Kuznetsova, 2012. "The role of the informal sector, flexible working time and pay in the Russian labour market model," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 177-190, November.
    30. Yang, Lu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "Systemic risk and economic policy uncertainty: International evidence from the crude oil market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 142-158.
    31. Calvo-Gonzalez,Oscar & Eizmendi,Axel, 2018. "Winners never quit, quitters never grow : using text mining to measure policy volatility and its link with long-term growth in Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8310, The World Bank.
    32. Mike Thelwall & Kevan Buckley & Georgios Paltoglou & Di Cai & Arvid Kappas, 2010. "Sentiment strength detection in short informal text," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 61(12), pages 2544-2558, December.
    33. Corinna Ghirelli & María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2021. "Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty and their macroeconomic effects: the case of Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 869-892, February.
    34. Tobback, Ellen & Naudts, Hans & Daelemans, Walter & Junqué de Fortuny, Enric & Martens, David, 2018. "Belgian economic policy uncertainty index: Improvement through text mining," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 355-365.
    35. Shen, Huayu & Hou, Fei & Peng, Miaowei & Xiong, Hao & Zuo, Haohao, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate tax avoidance: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    36. Adams, Samuel & Adedoyin, Festus & Olaniran, Eniola & Bekun, Festus Victor, 2020. "Energy consumption, economic policy uncertainty and carbon emissions; causality evidence from resource rich economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 179-190.
    37. Liu, Li & Zhang, Tao, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 99-105.
    38. Lutz Kilian & Yun Jung Kim, 2011. "How Reliable Are Local Projection Estimators of Impulse Responses?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1460-1466, November.
    39. Ingo Eduard Isphording & Sebastian Otten, 2013. "The Costs of Babylon—Linguistic Distance in Applied Economics," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 354-369, May.
    40. repec:eco:journ2:2017-04-02 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Oloko, Tirimisiyu F. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Adedeji, Abdulfatai A. & Lakhani, Noman, 2021. "Oil price shocks and inflation rate persistence: A Fractional Cointegration VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 259-275.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marco Palomeque & Juan de-Lucio, 2024. "The Soundtrack of a Crisis: More Positive Music Preferences During Economic and Social Adversity," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 1-24, June.
    2. Diana Petrova & Pavel Trunin, 2023. "Estimation of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(3), pages 48-61, September.
    3. Gang, Cuiui & Li, Juanwei & Hu, Haiqing & Wei, Wei, 2023. "Dynamic co-movement between economic growth and language: A new perspective of technological progress," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 705-721.
    4. Nino Buliskeria & Jaromir Baxa & Tomas Sestorad, 2023. "Uncertain Trends in Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 2023/16, Czech National Bank.
    5. Diakonova, Marina & Ghirelli, Corinna & Molina, Luis & Pérez, Javier J., 2023. "The economic impact of conflict-related and policy uncertainty shocks: The case of Russia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 69-90.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Gillmann, Niels & Kim, Alisa, 2021. "Quantification of Economic Uncertainty: a deep learning approach," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242421, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Fiori, Giuseppe & Scoccianti, Filippo, 2023. "The economic effects of firm-level uncertainty: Evidence using subjective expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 92-105.
    4. Wang, Yonglian & Wang, Lijun & Pan, Changchun & Hong, Songzhi, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and price pass-through effect of exchange rate in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Huizheng Liu & Jingyi Zhang & Qi Han & Wenshen Pan & Muhammad Afaq Haider Jafri, 2022. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Stability of Enterprises Embedded in a Global Value Chain," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(2), pages 1-3.
    6. Redl, Chris, 2020. "Uncertainty matters: Evidence from close elections," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Lautenbacher, Stefan, 2020. "Subjective Uncertainty, Expectations, and Firm Behavior," MPRA Paper 103516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ghirelli, Corinna & Pérez, Javier J. & Urtasun, Alberto, 2021. "The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty in Latin America on the Spanish economy," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(2).
    9. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    11. Bhanu Pratap & Nalin Priyaranjan, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty: a Google trends-based analysis for India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1599-1625, October.
    12. repec:wrk:wrkemf:12 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Hang Su & Yong Geng & Xi-Qiang Xia & Quan-Jing Wang, 2022. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Social Development, Political Regimes and Environmental Quality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-15, February.
    14. Graziano Moramarco, 2022. "Measuring Global Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Cross-Country Uncertainty Spillovers," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, December.
    15. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis, 2019. "Forecasting European economic policy uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 94-114, February.
    16. Zohar, Osnat, 2024. "Cyclicality of uncertainty and disagreement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    17. Gächter, Martin & Geiger, Martin & Stöckl, Sebastian, 2020. "Credit intermediation and the transmission of macro-financial uncertainty: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    18. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    19. Saygin Sahinoz & Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2020. "Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-387, May.
    20. Iván Alfaro & Nicholas Bloom & Xiaoji Lin, 2024. "The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(2), pages 577-615.
    21. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge Hirs-Garzón & Sebastián Sanin-Restrepo & Jorge M. Uribe, 2024. "Financial and Macroeconomic Uncertainties and Real Estate Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 29-53, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:73:y:2022:i:c:p:546-562. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.