IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v63y2019icp107-118.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade and growth in SACU countries: A panel data analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Manwa, Farai
  • Wijeweera, Albert
  • Kortt, Michael A.

Abstract

Recent research from the IMF and the World Bank suggests that restrictive trade policies could lead to poor economic growth in many developing countries. This paper exploits over 30 years of panel data from five Southern African Customs Union (SACU) countries – Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland – to investigate the possible link between trade liberalization and economic growth. The paper contributes to the literature by introducing multiple indicators of liberalization to estimate the possible relationships between trade openness and economic growth. In particular, we use four different trade liberalization indicators: (i) tariffs, (ii) real effective exchange rates (REER), (iii) trade ratios, and (iv) adjusted trade ratios. The results from our fixed-effect regression models indicate that there is little, if any, compelling evidence that trade liberalization has had a positive impact on the economic growth on SACU countries over the last 30 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Manwa, Farai & Wijeweera, Albert & Kortt, Michael A., 2019. "Trade and growth in SACU countries: A panel data analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 107-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:63:y:2019:i:c:p:107-118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2019.05.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592619300554
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2019.05.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Anderson & J. Peter Neary, 1996. "A New Approach to Evaluating Trade Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(1), pages 107-125.
    2. J Fedderke & P Vaze, 2001. "THE NATURE OF SOUTH AFRICA'S TRADE PATTERNS BY ECONOMIC SECTOR, AND THE EXTENT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION DURING THE COURSE OF THE 1990′s," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 69(3), pages 436-478, September.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    4. Rose, Andrew K., 2004. "Do WTO members have more liberal trade policy?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 209-235, July.
    5. Menzie Chinn, 2006. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 115-143, January.
    6. By Gunnar Jonsson & Arvind Subramanian, 2001. "Dynamic Gains from Trade: Evidence from South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-8.
    7. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    8. Aitken, Norman D, 1973. "The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 881-892, December.
    9. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    10. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Real effective exchange rates for 178 countries: A new database," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1210, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    11. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    12. Harrison, Ann, 1996. "Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 419-447, March.
    13. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    14. Steve Dowrick & Jane Golley, 2004. "Trade Openness and Growth: Who Benefits?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 20(1), pages 38-56, Spring.
    15. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "Growth Accelerations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 303-329, December.
    16. Michael A. Clemens & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2004. "Why did the Tariff--Growth Correlation Change after 1950?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 5-46, March.
    17. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    18. Hoekman, Bernard & Nicita, Alessandro, 2011. "Trade Policy, Trade Costs, and Developing Country Trade," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 2069-2079.
    19. Robert C. Feenstra & Jon D. Kendall, 1991. "Exchange Rate Volatility and International Prices," NBER Working Papers 3644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Paul Collier, 1993. "Higgledy-piggledy Liberalisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 503-511, July.
    21. Hur, Jung & Park, Cheolbeom, 2012. "Do Free Trade Agreements Increase Economic Growth of the Member Countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1283-1294.
    22. James E. Anderson & J. Peter Neary, 2003. "The Mercantilist Index of Trade Policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 627-649, May.
    23. Hau, Harald, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 611-630, August.
    24. Robert E. Baldwin, 2004. "Openness and Growth: What's the Empirical Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 499-521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Irwin, Douglas A. & Tervio, Marko, 2002. "Does trade raise income?: Evidence from the twentieth century," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-18, October.
    26. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    27. Spilimbergo, Antonio & Londono, Juan Luis & Szekely, Miguel, 1999. "Income distribution, factor endowments, and trade openness," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 77-101, June.
    28. Joseph Francois & Hans Van Meijl & Frank Van Tongeren, 2005. "Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round [Trade in Manufactures, the Outcome of the Uruguay Round and Developing Country Interests]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 350-391.
    29. Richard Kneller & C. W. Morgan & Sunti Kanchanahatakij, 2008. "Trade Liberalisation and Economic Growth," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 701-719, June.
    30. Jerik Hanushek & Dennis Kimko, 2006. "Schooling, Labor-force Quality, and the Growth of Nations," Voprosy obrazovaniya / Educational Studies Moscow, National Research University Higher School of Economics, issue 1, pages 154-193.
    31. Edwards, Sebastian, 1989. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 4(1), pages 3-21, January.
    32. Greenaway, David, 1993. "Liberalising Foreign Trade through Rose-Tinted Glasses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 208-222, January.
    33. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    34. David Dollar & Aart Kraay, 2004. "Trade, Growth, and Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 22-49, February.
    35. Bhattacharyya, Sambit, 2012. "Trade liberalization and institutional development," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 253-269.
    36. Pritchett, Lant & Sethi, Geeta, 1994. "Tariff Rates, Tariff Revenue, and Tariff Reform: Some New Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, January.
    37. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2001. "Nominal and real effective exchange rates of middle eastern countries and their trade performance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 103-111.
    38. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    39. Simon Roberts & John Thoburn, 2003. "Adjusting to Trade Liberalisation: The Case of Firms in the South African Textile Sector," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 12(1), pages 74-103, March.
    40. David SGreenaway, 1998. "Does Trade Liberalisation Promote Economic Development?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(5), pages 491-511, November.
    41. Jagdish Bhagwati, 2002. "Trade and Poverty in the Poor Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 180-183, May.
    42. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michel, 2011. "The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-17, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    43. Bedassa Tadesse & Bichaka Fayissa, 2008. "The impact of African growth and opportunity act (Agoa) on U.S. imports from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 920-941.
    44. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18237.
    45. R. G. Parr, 1994. "Intra‐industry Trade and the Prospect of Trade Liberalisation in South Africa1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 62(4), pages 234-242, December.
    46. Buyani Thomy & Gurudeo Anand Tularam & Mahinda Siriwardana, 2013. "Partial Equilibrium Analysis to Determine the Impacts of a Southern African Customs Union-European Union Economic Partnership Agreement on Botswana’s Imports," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, September.
    47. Easterly, William, 2001. "The Lost Decades: Developing Countries' Stagnation in Spite of Policy Reform 1980-1998," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 135-157, June.
    48. Dollar, David, 1992. "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 523-544, April.
    49. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Measuring outward orientation in LDCs: Can it be done?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 307-335, May.
    50. Manwa, Farai & Wijeweera, Albert, 2016. "Trade liberalisation and economic growth link: The case of Southern African Custom Union countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 12-21.
    51. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong Wha, 1996. "International Measures of Schooling Years and Schooling Quality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 218-223, May.
    52. Lawrence Edwards, 2005. "Has South Africa Liberalised Its Trade?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(4), pages 754-775, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arsène Aurelien NJAMEN KENGDO & Luc NEMBOT NDEFFO & Désiré AVOM, 2020. "The Effect of Foreign Debt on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Sub-Regions," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 109-114.
    2. Min-Ju Song & Young-Joon Seo & Hee-Yong Lee, 2023. "The dynamic relationship between industrialization, urbanization, CO2 emissions, and transportation modes in Korea: empirical evidence from maritime and air transport," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2111-2137, December.
    3. Mohammed Abubakar, 2024. "Globalisation and Output Growth Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa: the Critical Role of Trade Liberalisation," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 2218-2240, March.
    4. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Nadia Doytch & Christophe Schinckus & Thanh Dinh Su, 2024. "Mobile and internet usage, institutions and the trade balance: Evidence from African countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2230-2264, April.
    5. Gislain Stéphane Gandjon Fankem & Mohamadou Oumarou, 2020. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa : Evidence from New Trade Openness Indicator," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 2920-2931.
    6. Claire Emilienne Wati Yameogo & Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi, 2021. "Trade liberalisation, economic growth and poverty level in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 754-774, January.
    7. Augustine Adebayo Kutu & Abieyuwa Ohonba, 2024. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Economic Growth in South Africa," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 55-63, October.
    8. Bosede Ngozi Adeleye & Ismail Bengana & Abdelaziz Boukhelkhal & Mohammad Musa Shafiq & Hauwah K. K. Abdulkareem, 2022. "Does Human Capital Tilt the Population-Economic Growth Dynamics? Evidence from Middle East and North African Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 863-883, July.
    9. Shreya Pal, 2024. "Do economic globalization and the level of education impede poverty levels? A non-linear ARDL approach," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 22(3), pages 621-667, September.
    10. Philémon Votsoma & Votsoma Djekna & Itchoko Motande Mondjeli Mwa Ndjokou, 2024. "Trade openness and economic growth in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Is a review of the empirical evidence worthwhile? [Ouverture commerciale et croissance économique dans la ," Post-Print hal-04560475, HAL.
    11. Zambrano-Monserrate, Manuel A., 2024. "Labor dynamics and unions: An empirical analysis through Okun's Law," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 613-628.
    12. Emma Serwaa Obobisa & Haibo Chen & Emmanuel Caesar Ayamba & Claudia Nyarko Mensah, 2021. "The Causal Relationship Between China-Africa Trade, China OFDI, and Economic Growth of African Countries," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, December.
    13. Adedapo Odebode & Olajide Sunday Oladipo, 2021. "Does Meaningful Relationship Exist Between Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth? A Case Study of a Small Open Economy," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(2), pages 1-5.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manwa, Farai & Wijeweera, Albert, 2016. "Trade liberalisation and economic growth link: The case of Southern African Custom Union countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 12-21.
    2. Nathaniel P. S. Cook & Jason C. Jones, 2021. "The African Growth and Opportunity Act and growth in sub‐Saharan Africa: A local projection approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 234-261, January.
    3. Adedapo Odebode & Olajide Sunday Oladipo, 2021. "Does Meaningful Relationship Exist Between Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth? A Case Study of a Small Open Economy," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(2), pages 1-5.
    4. Agbahoungba, Lesfran Sam Wanilo & Thiam, Ibrahima, 2018. "Effets du Commerce Extérieur sur la Croissance Economique en Zone CEDEAO [Economic Growth effects of External Trade in ECOWAS]," MPRA Paper 89035, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    5. Maria Cipollina & Luca Salvatici, 2008. "Measuring Protection: Mission Impossible?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 577-616, July.
    6. Mr. Andrew Berg & Anne O. Krueger, 2003. "Trade, Growth, and Poverty: A Selective Survey," IMF Working Papers 2003/030, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Stimpfle, Alexander & Stadelmann, David, 2015. "The Impact of Fundamental Development Factors on Different Income Groups: International Evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113128, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. L. ALAN WINTERS & NEIL McCULLOCH & ANDREW McKAY, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 14, pages 271-314, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    10. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2018. "The real effect of currency misalignment on productivity growth: evidence from middle-income economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1637-1659, December.
    11. Sumbal Fatima & Bateer Chen & Muhammad Ramzan & Qamar Abbas, 2020. "The Nexus Between Trade Openness and GDP Growth: Analyzing the Role of Human Capital Accumulation," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, November.
    12. Douglas A. Irwin, 2019. "Does Trade Reform Promote Economic Growth? A Review of Recent Evidence," Working Paper Series WP19-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    13. Mullings, Robert & Mahabir, Aruneema, 2018. "Growth by Destination: The Role of Trade in Africa’s Recent Growth Episode," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 243-261.
    14. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Openness to international trade and economic growth: A cross-country empirical investigation," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Jinzhao Chen, 2015. "Interprovincial Competitiveness and Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Data (1992–2008)," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 388-414, August.
    16. Kuo-Hsing Kuo & Cheng-Te Lee & Chen Fang, 2014. "Free Trade and Economic Growth," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1-2), pages 69-76, June.
    17. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2011. "Globalization and growth in the low income African countries with the extreme bounds analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 795-805, May.
    18. Tommaso Nannicini & Andreas Billmeier, 2011. "Economies in Transition: How Important Is Trade Openness for Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(3), pages 287-314, June.
    19. Aribah Aslam, 2020. "The hotly debate of human capital and economic growth: why institutions may matter?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1351-1362, August.
    20. María Soledad Feal Zubimendi, 2008. "Crecimiento económico y apertura comercial: análisis de la influencia de los canales," Estudios Economicos, Universidad Nacional del Sur, Departamento de Economia, vol. 25(50), pages 37-73, January-j.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:63:y:2019:i:c:p:107-118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.