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The stock–bond comovements and cross-market trading

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  • Li, Mengling
  • Zheng, Huanhuan
  • Tai Leung Chong, Terence
  • Zhang, Yang

Abstract

We propose an asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents allocating capital to the stock and bond markets to optimize their portfolios, utilizing the dynamic interaction between the two markets. While some agents focus on the stock market and have more expertise in it, the others specialize in the bond market. Based on their comparative advantages in a particular market, heterogeneous agents constantly revise their investment portfolios by taking into account the time-varying stock–bond return comovements and the changing market conditions. Agents׳ collective investment behavior shapes the stock–bond interlinkage, which feedbacks on their subsequent capital allocations. Using monthly US stock and bond data from January 1990 to June 2014, we estimate the vector autoregression model with threshold and Markov switching mechanisms. We find evidence in support of flight-to-quality and show that it is mainly driven by the technical traders who actively sell stocks and buy bonds during periods of high market uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Mengling & Zheng, Huanhuan & Tai Leung Chong, Terence & Zhang, Yang, 2016. "The stock–bond comovements and cross-market trading," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 417-438.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:73:y:2016:i:c:p:417-438
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2016.10.007
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chen, Na & Jin, Xiu, 2020. "Industry risk transmission channels and the spillover effects of specific determinants in China’s stock market: A spatial econometrics approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    4. Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Raza, Naveed & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ali, Azwadi, 2017. "Dependence of stock markets with gold and bonds under bullish and bearish market states," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 308-319.
    5. Frijns, Bart & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2018. "Time-varying arbitrage and dynamic price discovery," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 485-502.
    6. Chen, Na & Jin, Xiu, 2023. "Cross-industry asset allocation with the spatial interaction on multiple risk transmission channels," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Ji, Jingru & Wang, Donghua & Xu, Dinghai, 2019. "Modelling the spreading process of extreme risks via a simple agent-based model: Evidence from the China stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 383-391.
    8. Deng, Chao & Su, Xiaojian & Wang, Gangjin & Peng, Cheng, 2022. "The existence of flight-to-quality under extreme conditions: Evidence from a nonlinear perspective in Chinese stocks and bonds' sectors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    9. Mengling Li & Huanhuan Zheng, 2017. "Heterogeneous trading and complex price dynamics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(2), pages 437-442, July.
    10. Wang, Hong-Yong & Wang, Tong-Tong, 2018. "Multifractal analysis of the Chinese stock, bond and fund markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 280-292.
    11. Wang, Luxia & Chong, Terence Tai Leung & He, Yiyao & Liu, Yuchen, 2018. "The Underpricing of Venture Capital Backed IPOs in China," MPRA Paper 92079, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneity; Stock–bond comovement; Markov switching VAR; Threshold VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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