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Loss aversion, habit formation and the term structures of equity and interest rates

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  • Curatola, Giuliano

Abstract

I propose a consumption-based asset pricing model that jointly explains the high equity premium, the counter-cyclical behaviour of stock returns, the upward-sloping term structure of interest rates and the downward-sloping term structure of equity. The driving forces behind these results are loss aversion and time-varying habits. The high premium is the reward for holding assets that deliver low returns when consumption descends below habits. The term structure of interests rates is upward-sloping because long-term bonds are more sensitive to fluctuations of discount rates. The term structure of equity is downward-sloping because long-horizon equity gives higher chances to beat consumption habits than short-horizon equity.

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  • Curatola, Giuliano, 2015. "Loss aversion, habit formation and the term structures of equity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 103-122.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:53:y:2015:i:c:p:103-122
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2015.02.009
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    Cited by:

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    2. Huang, Jia & Chen, Zheng, 2021. "Optimal risk asset allocation of a loss-averse bank with partial information under inflation risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    3. Roberto Marfè, 2016. "Corporate Fraction and the Equilibrium Term Structure of Equity Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 855-905.
    4. Roberto Marfè, 2017. "Income Insurance and the Equilibrium Term Structure of Equity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(5), pages 2073-2130, October.
    5. Marianne Andries & Thomas M. Eisenbach & R. Jay Kahn & Martin C. Schmalz, 2015. "The term structure of the price of variance risk," Staff Reports 736, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Curatola, Giuliano, 2017. "Optimal portfolio choice with loss aversion over consumption," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 345-358.
    7. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "An equilibrium model of the term structures of bonds and equities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Chen, Zheng & Li, Zhongfei & Zeng, Yan & Sun, Jingyun, 2017. "Asset allocation under loss aversion and minimum performance constraint in a DC pension plan with inflation risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 137-150.
    9. Li, Meng, 2023. "Loss aversion and inefficient general equilibrium over the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    10. Chen, Zheng & Li, Zhongfei & Zeng, Yan, 2023. "Portfolio choice with illiquid asset for a loss-averse pension fund investor," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 60-83.
    11. Curatola, Giuliano, 2016. "Optimal consumption and portfolio choice with loss aversion," SAFE Working Paper Series 130, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    12. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Koijen, Ralph S.J., 2017. "The term structure of returns: Facts and theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-21.
    13. Servaas van Bilsen & Roger J. A. Laeven & Theo E. Nijman, 2020. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice Under Loss Aversion and Endogenous Updating of the Reference Level," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(9), pages 3927-3955, September.
    14. Taeyoung Doh & Shu Wu, 2016. "The Equilibrium Term Structure of Equity and Interest Rates," Research Working Paper RWP 16-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    15. Zhiting Wu, 2024. "The sensitivity of risk premiums to the elasticity of intertemporal substitution," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 53(2), pages 353-390, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loss-aversion; Habit formation; Yield curve; Dividend strips; General equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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