IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cca/wpaper/461.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Labor Rigidity, In ation Risk and Bond Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Marfè

Abstract

This paper exploits information from the variance-ratios of macroeconomic variables to infer about the short and long-run components of dividend risk and in ation risk. While labor rigidity shifts dividend risk towards the short horizon, it also reveals {by means of labor-share variation{ the component of in ation risk which is correlated with fundamentals. A simple general equilibrium model with labor rigidity can explain how in ation interacts with the real growth and the labor-share, as well as many patterns of the term-structures of real and nominal bond yields. The model is robust to many properties of equity returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Marfè, 2016. "Labor Rigidity, In ation Risk and Bond Returns," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 461, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    • Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:461
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.carloalberto.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/no.461.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2013. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 1-33.
    2. Kuehn Lars-Alexander & Petrosky-Nadeau Nicolas & Zhang Lu, "undated". "An Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Labor Market Search," GSIA Working Papers 2010-E63, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    3. Benzoni, Luca & Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Goldstein, Robert S., 2011. "Explaining asset pricing puzzles associated with the 1987 market crash," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 552-573, September.
    4. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    5. Jules van Binsbergen & Michael Brandt & Ralph Koijen, 2012. "On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1596-1618, June.
    6. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
    7. Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau & Daniel Greenwald, 2014. "The Origins of Stock Market Fluctuations," 2014 Meeting Papers 542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Longstaff, Francis A. & Piazzesi, Monika, 2004. "Corporate earnings and the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 401-421, December.
    9. David M. Kreps & Evan L. Porteus, 2013. "Temporal von Neumann—Morgenstern and Induced Preferences," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 11, pages 181-206, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Danthine, Jean Pierre & Donaldson, John B., 1992. "Risk sharing in the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 468-475, April.
    11. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
    12. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. van Binsbergen, Jules & Hueskes, Wouter & Koijen, Ralph & Vrugt, Evert, 2013. "Equity yields," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 503-519.
      • Jules H. van Binsbergen & Wouter Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2011. "Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 17416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
    15. Jonathan B. Berk & Johan Walden, 2013. "Limited Capital Market Participation and Human Capital Risk," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 1-37.
    16. Luigi Guiso & Luigi Pistaferri & Fabiano Schivardi, 2005. "Insurance within the Firm," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1054-1087, October.
    17. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2005. "Expected returns and expected dividend growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 583-626, June.
    18. Bjørn Eraker, 2008. "Affine General Equilibrium Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(12), pages 2068-2080, December.
    19. Mariano M. Croce & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2015. "Investor Information, Long-Run Risk, and the Term Structure of Equity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 706-742.
    20. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. George M. Constantinides & Anisha Ghosh, 2011. "Asset Pricing Tests with Long-run Risks in Consumption Growth," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 96-136.
    22. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2007. "Why Is Long‐Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 55-92, February.
    23. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 389-472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2007. "Habit Formation and Macroeconomic Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 3009-3063, December.
    25. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    27. Geert Bekaert & Xiaozheng Wang, 2010. "Inflation risk and the inflation risk premium [Do macro variables, asset markets or surveys forecast inflation better?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(64), pages 755-806.
    28. repec:oup:rfinst:v:26:y::i:1:p:1-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Dongho Song, 2017. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(8), pages 2761-2817.
    30. Beeler, Jason & Campbell, John Y., 2012. "The Long-Run Risks Model and Aggregate Asset Prices: An Empirical Assessment," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 141-182, January.
    31. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    32. Henrik Hasseltoft & Dominic Burkhardt, 2012. "Understanding Asset Correlations," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 12-38, Swiss Finance Institute.
    33. Frederico Belo & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2015. "Dividend Dynamics and the Term Structure of Dividend Strips," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 1115-1160, June.
    34. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Stochastic Differential Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 353-394, March.
    35. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Koijen, Ralph S.J., 2017. "The term structure of returns: Facts and theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-21.
    36. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2006. "Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 1-44.
    37. Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2012. "Stocks, Bonds, and Long-Run Consumption Risks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 309-332, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roberto Marfè, 2015. "Labor Rigidity and the Dynamics of the Value Premium," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 429, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    2. Roberto Marfè, 2017. "Income Insurance and the Equilibrium Term Structure of Equity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(5), pages 2073-2130, October.
    3. Roberto Marfè, 2016. "Corporate Fraction and the Equilibrium Term Structure of Equity Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 855-905.
    4. Matthijs Breugem & Stefano Colonello & Roberto Marfè & Francesca Zucchi, 2020. "Dynamic Equity Slope," Working Papers 2020:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    5. Hasler, Michael & Marfè, Roberto, 2016. "Disaster recovery and the term structure of dividend strips," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 116-134.
    6. Backus, David & Boyarchenko, Nina & Chernov, Mikhail, 2018. "Term structures of asset prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 1-23.
    7. Michael Hasler & Mariana Khapko & Roberto Marfè, 2020. "Rational Learning and the Term Structures of Value and Growth Risk Premia," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 622, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    8. Dergunov, Ilya & Meinerding, Christoph & Schlag, Christian, 2019. "Extreme inflation and time-varying consumption growth," Discussion Papers 16/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "An equilibrium model of the term structures of bonds and equities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Ilya Dergunov & Christoph Meinerding & Christian Schlag, 2023. "Extreme Inflation and Time-Varying Expected Consumption Growth," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2972-3002, May.
    11. Guihai Zhao, 2020. "Ambiguity, Nominal Bond Yields, and Real Bond Yields," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 177-192, June.
    12. Breugem, Matthijs & Marfè, Roberto, 2020. "Long-run versus short-run news and the term structure of equity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    13. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Christian Dorion & Alexandre Jeanneret & Michael Weber, 2018. "Low Inflation: High Default Risk AND High Equity Valuations," NBER Working Papers 25317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906, Elsevier.
    15. Michael Weber & Christian Dorion & Alexandre Jeanneret & Harjoat Bhamra, 2017. "Deflation, Sticky Leverage and Asset Prices," 2017 Meeting Papers 796, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Koijen, Ralph S.J., 2017. "The term structure of returns: Facts and theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-21.
    17. Bansal, Ravi & Miller, Shane & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2021. "The term structure of equity risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1209-1228.
    18. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Grenadier, Steven R., 2010. "Stock and bond returns with Moody Investors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 867-894, December.
    19. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley Zin, 2014. "Sources of Entropy in Representative Agent Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 51-99, February.
    20. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Macro-Finance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 945-985.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor rigidity; in ation; term-structure; interest rates; equilibrium asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:461. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Giovanni Bert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fccaait.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.