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A Comparative Analysis of the Rationality of Consensus Forecasts of U.S. Economic Indicators

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  • David C. Schirm

    (John Carroll University)

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to investigate the rationality of two survey forecasts of selective U.S. macroeconomic performance measures that were widely followed in the financial markets during the 19902000 period. The research compares the rationality of survey forecast data from Money Market Services, Inc., and Thomson Financial. This article extends prior research that has evaluated the rationality of Money Market Services data for earlier time periods while also evaluating similar consensus forecast data from Thomson Financial that were widely reported in both Barron's and the Wall Street Journal during the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • David C. Schirm, 2003. "A Comparative Analysis of the Rationality of Consensus Forecasts of U.S. Economic Indicators," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 547-562, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:76:y:2003:i:4:p:547-562
    DOI: 10.1086/377030
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pearce, Douglas K. & Solakoglu, M. Nihat, 2007. "Macroeconomic news and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 307-325, October.
    2. Campbell, Sean D. & Sharpe, Steven A., 2009. "Anchoring Bias in Consensus Forecasts and Its Effect on Market Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 369-390, April.
    3. Yamamoto, Ryuichi & Hirata, Hideaki, 2013. "Strategy switching in the Japanese stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2010-2022.
    4. Audretsch, David B. & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005. "Biases in FX-forecasts: Evidence from panel data," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 99-111, August.
    5. Félix, Luiz & Kräussl, Roman & Stork, Philip, 2018. "Predictable biases in macroeconomic forecasts and their impact across asset classes," CFS Working Paper Series 596, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    6. Luiz Félix & Roman Kräussl & Philip Stork, 2021. "Strategic bias and popularity effect in the prediction of economic surprises," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1095-1117, September.
    7. Mitchell, Karlyn & Pearce, Douglas K., 2007. "Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 840-854, December.
    8. Hess, Dieter & Orbe, Sebastian, 2011. "Irrationality or efficiency of macroeconomic survey forecasts? Implications from the anchoring bias test," CFR Working Papers 11-13, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    9. Emilian Dobrescu, 2014. "A Hybrid Forecasting Approach," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(35), pages 390-390, February.

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