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Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists

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  • Reitz, Stefan
  • Westerhoff, Frank

Abstract

We develop a behavioral exchange rate model with chartists and fundamentalists to study cyclical behavior in foreign exchange markets. Within our model, the market impact of fundamentalists depends on the strength of their belief in fundamental analysis. Estimation of a STAR GARCH model shows that the more the exchange rate deviates from its fundamental value, the more fundamentalists leave the market. In contrast to previous findings, our paper indicates that due to the nonlinear presence of fundamentalists, market stability decreases with increasing misalignments. A stabilization policy such as central bank interventions may help to deflate bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Reitz, Stefan & Westerhoff, Frank, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200310
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nonlinearities; technical and fundamental trading; STAR GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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