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How do policymakers update their beliefs?

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  • Vivalt, Eva
  • Coville, Aidan

Abstract

We present results from experiments run in collaboration with the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank on how policymakers, policy practitioners, and researchers update their beliefs in response to results from academic studies. Initially, policymakers both believe development programs will have more positive results and are more certain about it than policy practitioners and researchers, despite reporting less familiarity with the programs. When participants are presented with the results of impact evaluations, we find evidence they update more on good news and are relatively insensitive to confidence intervals. We do not observe significant differences in biases between groups, and these biases cannot fully explain differences in beliefs.

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  • Vivalt, Eva & Coville, Aidan, 2023. "How do policymakers update their beliefs?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:165:y:2023:i:c:s0304387823000767
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103121
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    3. Robert Dur & Arjan Non & Paul Prottung & Benedetta Ricci, 2023. "Who’s Afraid of Policy Experiments?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-027/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Roberto Brunetti & Matthieu Pourieux, 2023. "Representative Policy-Makers? A Behavioral Experiment with French Politicians," Working Papers 2319, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    5. Frohnweiler, Sarah & Adongo, Charles A. & Beber, Bernd & Lakemann, Tabea & Priebe, Jan & Lay, Jann, 2024. "Effects of skills training on employment and livelihood outcomes: A randomized controlled trial with young women in Ghana," Ruhr Economic Papers 1095, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Jingjing Zeng & Guihua Huang, 2024. "Bureaucratic biases in trust of expert policy advice: a randomized controlled experiment based on Chinese think tank reports," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 57(2), pages 305-351, June.
    7. Ankel-Peters, Jörg & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2023. "Rural electrification, the credibility revolution, and the limits of evidence-based policy," Ruhr Economic Papers 1051, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

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