Do surprisingly low child maltreatment rates in rural southern counties reflect lower rates of substantiation?

This study aims to help explain surprisingly low official child maltreatment rates in rural southern U.S. counties with many child maltreatment risk factors. It investigates whether comparatively lower child maltreatment rates in rural, majority African-American counties are due to lower rates of substantiation. County-level data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS) were linked with demographic and poverty data from the U.S. Census. Fractional response probit regression models assessed whether substantiation rates were associated with county racial composition, rurality, and poverty rate. Substantiation rates in rural, majority African-American counties were similar to those of other counties in the region, even when accounting for the county poverty rate. The findings clarify that lower maltreatment rates in rural, majority African-American counties in the South are a consequence of lower maltreatment report rates, and not also a consequence of substantiation decisions. The discussion addresses some implications of low levels of formal child welfare intervention in high risk, low resource counties with histories of marginalization.