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Robust analysis of default intensity

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  • Bellini, Tiziano
  • Riani, Marco

Abstract

The problem of robust estimation and multivariate outlier detection of the term structure of default intensity is considered. Both the multivariate Vasicek and CIR models, embedding the Kalman filter algorithm in a forward search context, are used to estimate default intensity. The focus is not on the estimation of credit models including jumps, but on the automatic detection of masked multiple outliers in multivariate time series. Both simulated and real market credit spread time series are analyzed. In order to make inference on outliers, confidence envelopes which are virtually independent of the estimated parameters are introduced. The output is not only a unique default intensity term structure curve, as often used in the financial literature, but a robust confidence interval within which default intensity is likely to stay.

Suggested Citation

  • Bellini, Tiziano & Riani, Marco, 2012. "Robust analysis of default intensity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3276-3285.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:56:y:2012:i:11:p:3276-3285
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2011.03.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Riani Marco, 2004. "Extensions of the Forward Search to Time Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-25, May.
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    3. Marco Riani & Anthony C. Atkinson & Andrea Cerioli, 2009. "Finding an unknown number of multivariate outliers," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 447-466, April.
    4. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
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    8. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    9. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bellini, Tiziano, 2013. "Integrated bank risk modeling: A bottom-up statistical framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 385-398.
    2. Bellini, Tiziano, 2012. "Forward search outlier detection in data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 200-207.

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