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Using capture-recapture data and hybrid Monte Carlo sampling to estimate an animal population affected by an environmental catastrophe

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  • Qian, Guoqi
  • Li, Ning
  • Huggins, Richard

Abstract

We propose a dynamic model for the evolution of an open animal population that is subject to an environmental catastrophe. The model incorporates a capture-recapture experiment often conducted for studying wildlife population, and enables inferences on the population size and possible effect of the catastrophe. A Bayesian approach is used to model unobserved quantities in the problem as latent variables and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for posterior computation. Because the particular interrelationship between observed and latent variables negates the feasibility of standard MCMC methods, we propose a hybrid Monte Carlo approach that integrates a Gibbs sampler with the strategies of sequential importance sampling (SIS) and acceptance-rejection (AR) sampling for model estimation. We develop results on how to construct effective proposal densities for the SIS scheme. The approach is illustrated through a simulation study, and is applied to data from a mountain pygmy possum (Burramys Parvus) population that was affected by a bushfire.

Suggested Citation

  • Qian, Guoqi & Li, Ning & Huggins, Richard, 2011. "Using capture-recapture data and hybrid Monte Carlo sampling to estimate an animal population affected by an environmental catastrophe," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 655-666, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:55:y:2011:i:1:p:655-666
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huggins, Richard, 2007. "On the use of linear models in the estimation of the size of a population using capture-recapture data," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(6), pages 649-653, March.
    2. William A. Link & Richard J. Barker, 2005. "Modeling Association among Demographic Parameters in Analysis of Open Population Capture–Recapture Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 46-54, March.
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